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seanof

Member
Nov 27, 2018
2,896
2,856
Mmmm .... this headline says to me that no matter how bad a virus or pandemic gets a health system should be able to handle it. I disagree, no system is open ended to that extent. At some point no amount of money or resources could help a system if a huge amount of a population becomes unwell. Nor could you predict in to the future a pandemic or its actual size.

That's not what it says to me. Ireland lacked hospital beds before any pandemic. Here is the relevant quote from that article: (ICU beds are 12 per 100,000 on average, not per 1,000 as stated.)

"The average number of hospital beds in the OECD area stands at 3.7 per 1,000; in Ireland it’s 2.8 per 1,000; ICU beds are 12 per 1,000 on average, while in Ireland it’s 5 beds per 100,000.

We have around 300 ICU beds – we should have 579."
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
We have around 300 ICU beds – we should have 579."
Which is my point. Are you saying shur we would be fine with 579? Or just better than we are now? Because take a look at NPHETs modeling by December .. upward to 500 in ICU. And we could very easily go beyond that.

We can argue over what should have happened .. it didnt and going down that rabbit hole is a waste of energy. We need to work with what we have unfortunately.

Saying Covid isnt the problem any more its the health system says to me it doesnt matter how bad covid gets any health system should be able to handle it. Im not sure there is any health system in the world you could say that about. Each one has an upper limit
 

publicrealm

Member
Nov 27, 2018
7,605
10,389
Mmmm .... this headline says to me that no matter how bad a virus or pandemic gets a health system should be able to handle it. I disagree, no system is open ended to that extent. At some point no amount of money or resources could help a system if a huge amount of a population becomes unwell. Nor could you predict in to the future a pandemic or its actual size.

The figures for Ireland are a bit out of date - maybe they have improved somewhat in the meantime?


https://a.storyblok.com/f/81332/1214x822/a240915cd7/intensive-care-beds-capacity.JPG
 

publicrealm

Member
Nov 27, 2018
7,605
10,389
Which is my point. Are you saying shur we would be fine with 579? Or just better than we are now? Because take a look at NPHETs modeling by December .. upward to 500 in ICU. And we could very easily go beyond that.

We can argue over what should have happened .. it didnt and going down that rabbit hole is a waste of energy. We need to work with what we have unfortunately.

Saying Covid isnt the problem any more its the health system says to me it doesnt matter how bad covid gets any health system should be able to handle it. Im not sure there is any health system in the world you could say that about. Each one has an upper limit
I don't see anyone saying that Covid 'isn't the problem' - or suggesting that additional ICU capacity would solve the issue. But it would lessen the problem and it's quite reasonable to expect people to question why we are out of line in ICU capacity. It's not 'going down a rabbit hole' to do so - in fact its rather important 'unfortunately'.
 

Jaysus

Member
Sep 6, 2021
370
312
Donegal’s numbers are very low, despite being very, very high for the last 18 months. Herd immunity?
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
I don't see anyone saying that Covid 'isn't the problem' - or suggesting that additional ICU capacity would solve the issue. But it would lessen the problem and it's quite reasonable to expect people to question why we are out of line in ICU capacity. It's not 'going down a rabbit hole' to do so - in fact its rather important 'unfortunately'.
Ammmm .. the indo headline itself says it ..


Again, with regard lower ICU bed numbers here .. This is a fact we established during this pandemic and before BUT what can we do about it now, not much. As i said before an ICU bed is not just a bed & getting the trained staff is not a month long fas course. SO we have what we have and need to deal with the current situ accordingly. By all means i am not saying one cannot criticize this fact but right now its pointless, doesnt sort anything with respect to where we are at now, so instead concentrate on where we are now and work with what we have, there is no other choice
 

seanof

Member
Nov 27, 2018
2,896
2,856
Which is my point. Are you saying shur we would be fine with 579? Or just better than we are now? Because take a look at NPHETs modeling by December .. upward to 500 in ICU. And we could very easily go beyond that.

We can argue over what should have happened .. it didnt and going down that rabbit hole is a waste of energy. We need to work with what we have unfortunately.

Saying Covid isnt the problem any more its the health system says to me it doesnt matter how bad covid gets any health system should be able to handle it. Im not sure there is any health system in the world you could say that about. Each one has an upper limit
Clearly each country has an upper limit but Ireland's is among the lowest in the developed world for both normal beds and ICU. Ireland couldn't cope with normal winter demands for amny years now without leaving hordes of people on trolleys without a bed.

Whenever, if ever, we have the current plague under control, Ireland needs a health service that is fit for purpose.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
Clearly each country has an upper limit but Ireland's is among the lowest in the developed world for both normal beds and ICU. Ireland couldn't cope with normal winter demands for amny years now without leaving hordes of people on trolleys without a bed.

Whenever, if ever, we have the current plague under control, Ireland needs a health service that is fit for purpose.
Yes 100% ... When the current pandemic is over, take the lessons learned and act on them & hold our political system to task to make sure things are done.

Keep in mind though .. this serious upgrade to the health system will not come cheap and will require massive tax increases ( PRSI etc ), be interesting what people think when they realise someone else wont be paying for this but them
 

Jaysus

Member
Sep 6, 2021
370
312
Yes 100% ... When the current pandemic is over, take the lessons learned and act on them & hold our political system to task to make sure things are done.

Keep in mind though .. this serious upgrade to the health system will not come cheap and will require massive tax increases ( PRSI etc ), be interesting what people think when they realise someone else wont be paying for this but them
It needn’t require that much in tax increases. The problems were identified longe before Covid.

 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
Donegal’s numbers are very low, despite being very, very high for the last 18 months. Herd immunity?
Yes and actually falling too, which is remarkable. I also notice Limerick, Mayo, Monaghan, Laois, Galway and Kildare among the lower rungs - all former hotspots. Of course everywhere has a very high rate - it's important to remember that.

 
Nov 29, 2018
6,945
6,090
Yes 100% ... When the current pandemic is over, take the lessons learned and act on them & hold our political system to task to make sure things are done.

Keep in mind though .. this serious upgrade to the health system will not come cheap and will require massive tax increases ( PRSI etc ), be interesting what people think when they realise someone else wont be paying for this but them
Perhaps if the money currently allocated was spent on the correct resources, if the battalions of overpaid incompetent apparatchiks were removed, if the highly paid senior staff were accountable for their actions and spending, there would not be a need to increase tax/PRSI. If PRSI has to be increased, the employer contribution is what should be increased. I hear constant whining from various employers groups about things being done differently "everywhere else" but never hear any mention of the fact that the employers' contribution is one of the lowest, if not the lowest, in the EU.
 

seanof

Member
Nov 27, 2018
2,896
2,856
Perhaps if the money currently allocated was spent on the correct resources, if the battalions of overpaid incompetent apparatchiks were removed, if the highly paid senior staff were accountable for their actions and spending, there would not be a need to increase tax/PRSI. If PRSI has to be increased, the employer contribution is what should be increased. I hear constant whining from various employers groups about things being done differently "everywhere else" but never hear any mention of the fact that the employers' contribution is one of the lowest, if not the lowest, in the EU.
There seems to be less accountability among public health service managers now than there was under the old administration by the Dept of Health and the Regional Health Boards.

It's largely down to Micheál Martin, Mary Harney et al..

 

Jaysus

Member
Sep 6, 2021
370
312
There seems to be less accountability among public health service managers now than there was under the old administration by the Dept of Health and the Regional Health Boards.

It's largely down to Micheál Martin, Mary Harney et al..

My understanding is that it has to be just about torn down and started from scratch in order to fix it.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
So the L word IS on the table? Not going down to well across europe. In my view a lockdown really only serves to postpone not "fix".. So what comes after?

Maybe the idea would be to lockdown until end of jan or so to give the booster program a head start. Before anyone said we should have started booster prog earlier, for most not possible with the 5 or 6 month gap required where December is earliest

 
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Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,504
5,830
There seems to be less accountability among public health service managers now than there was under the old administration by the Dept of Health and the Regional Health Boards.

It's largely down to Micheál Martin, Mary Harney et al..

I see this all the time in the construction industry ....no accountability in middle management and everything put back on the person at the coal face who now has to fill in a form and sign off on every task....
 

Franzoni

Member
Nov 28, 2018
4,504
5,830
So the L word IS on the table? Not going down to well across europe. In my view a lockdown really only serves to postpone not "fix".. So what comes after?

Maybe the idea would be to lockdown until end of jan or so to give the booster program a head start. Before anyone said we should have started booster prog earlier, for most not possible with the 5 or 6 month gap required where December is earliest


At the moment it would seem boosters every six months unless you have had and survived Covid and even then you will probabaly need one in the future .....i'm sure Pfizer and the rest will be happy the billions will roll in for a bit longer.....

As you and a few others have ponted out there seem to be a drop in numbers across a few of the traditional covid hotspots so the golden horizon of herd immunity starting to kick in perhaps...?
 

Cruimh

Rhubarb fetishist and proud of it!
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Nov 28, 2018
18,714
12,401
Under the blue skies
www.xxx-rhubarb.com
Not sure if this warrants a thread in it's own right, but in response to claims


A review into whether medical devices are equally effective regardless of the patient's ethnicity has been ordered by Health Secretary Sajid Javid.
Research suggests oximeters, which are clipped to a person's finger, can overstate the level of oxygen in the blood of people from ethnic minorities.
Ministers want to know whether bias could have prevented patients receiving appropriate Covid treatment.
Mr Javid said any bias was "totally unacceptable".
Writing in the Sunday Times, Mr Javid said he was determined to "close the chasms that the pandemic has exposed".
He cited the disproportionate effect of the pandemic on black, Asian and other minority ethnic groups.
In scientific usage "bias" is correct in respect of instrument response, although the word in popular use tends to suggest some deliberate skewing for inappropriate reasons.

That said, if the Oximeter results are not calibrated to the patient's skin pigmentation then treatment will be affected.

Presumably the answer will be found by comparing oximeter readings with blood gas testing - not a pleasant procedure if it requires arterial sampling as I found out when I had heart failure and pulmonary oedema and pneumonia.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
@Bonkers This is incredibly tough on the recipient and also on the donors family.

To some degree the consequences of selfish actions taken by some people WHO HAD CHOICES which this recipient does not have


The case crystallises the tragic and far-reaching impact of Covid-19 on patients and on the healthcare system as hospitals brace for a surge of virus experts fear puts the health service at greater risk than at any time during the pandemic.

The Mater said the cancellation of the organ transplant procedure was “unprecedented” and extended its “deep regret” to the transplant patient.
 
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midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
@Bonkers This is incredibly tough on the recipient and also on the donors family.

To some degree the consequences of actions by other peoples choices



The case crystallises the tragic and far-reaching impact of Covid-19 on patients and on the healthcare system as hospitals brace for a surge of virus experts fear puts the health service at greater risk than at any time during the pandemic.

The Mater said the cancellation of the organ transplant procedure was “unprecedented” and extended its “deep regret” to the transplant patient.
Indeed, an aspect of the scandal that you won't hear too much about.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
So the L word IS on the table? Not going down to well across europe. In my view a lockdown really only serves to postpone not "fix".. So what comes after?

Maybe the idea would be to lockdown until end of jan or so to give the booster program a head start. Before anyone said we should have started booster prog earlier, for most not possible with the 5 or 6 month gap required where December is earliest

It's probably unavoidable at this stage unless there is a significant turnaround this week which seems unlikely. The booster campaign has already impacted considerably on the case rate among the older age groups and (it seems) the death rate, but even with the ramping up over the past few days, it hard to see people in their 20's and 30's (the main infectious groups) getting their boosters in any numbers until December. The 5-month gap will be dispensed with - my pharmacist told me on Friday they are expecting to be told that this week, and he's not even checking the date of the second dose as far as I can see.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
It's probably unavoidable at this stage unless there is a significant turnaround this week which seems unlikely. The booster campaign has already impacted considerably on the case rate among the older age groups and (it seems) the death rate, but even with the ramping up over the past few days, it hard to see people in their 20's and 30's (the main infectious groups) getting their boosters in any numbers until December. The 5-month gap will be dispensed with - my pharmacist told me on Friday they are expecting to be told that this week, and he's not even checking the date of the second dose as far as I can see.
Surely this may have significant repercussions on the efficacy of that booster shot for many?? The 5 months is there for an established reason
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Not sure if this warrants a thread in it's own right, but in response to claims




In scientific usage "bias" is correct in respect of instrument response, although the word in popular use tends to suggest some deliberate skewing for inappropriate reasons.

That said, if the Oximeter results are not calibrated to the patient's skin pigmentation then treatment will be affected.

Presumably the answer will be found by comparing oximeter readings with blood gas testing - not a pleasant procedure if it requires arterial sampling as I found out when I had heart failure and pulmonary oedema and pneumonia.
Wondering if it's simply a calibration issue, or if other more genetic or environmental issues are at play?
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
Surely this may have significant repercussions on the efficacy of that booster shot for many?? The 5 months is there for an established reason
I don't know, to be honest, but looking at the way the latest wave has taken off both here and then across Europe, the second dose seems to really only 'last' 4 months - the bulk of people here were second-dosed in June/July and the second Delta wave really exploded from October onwards, while Europe generally was a few weeks behind us in both respects. The 'gap' was originally 6 months and then became 5 - I suspect the thinking behind it is as much pure statistics as anything else.
 
Nov 29, 2018
6,945
6,090
@Bonkers This is incredibly tough on the recipient and also on the donors family.

To some degree the consequences of selfish actions taken by some people WHO HAD CHOICES which this recipient does not have


The case crystallises the tragic and far-reaching impact of Covid-19 on patients and on the healthcare system as hospitals brace for a surge of virus experts fear puts the health service at greater risk than at any time during the pandemic.

The Mater said the cancellation of the organ transplant procedure was “unprecedented” and extended its “deep regret” to the transplant patient.
There is a case for keeping ICU beds available for this type of operation. If that means that an unvaccinated covid patient is denied an ICU bed, so be it. Choices are made daily as to how scarce resources are allocated and a transplant patient should have priority so that the operation can be carried out in the small window available.

Those selfish enough to refuse vaccination do not deserve priority.
 

Round tower

Member
Feb 16, 2019
2,579
960
A fella i know well, fit active soccer player, an ambulance driver, got covid in the last 2 weeks, treble jabbed - fully vacconated + the booster jab, is very bad with it, not far from going into hospital, would be early 40's only
 
Feb 26, 2019
229
225
A fella i know well, fit active soccer player, an ambulance driver, got covid in the last 2 weeks, treble jabbed - fully vacconated + the booster jab, is very bad with it, not far from going into hospital, would be early 40's only
My granddad smoked 40 cigarettes a day and lived to be 87.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Not really. It's an extremely small sample of overall cases.
Looking at it from another angle:
90% of the adult population is vaccinated, 10% isn't.

Let's look at the ICU admissions.
According to my Covid app there are 23 people out of 3.536million double vaxxed in ICU (0.0006%).
5 out of around 100k partially vaxxed. and 20 out of 350k unvaccinated. (0.005%)
20 out of 350k or so unvaxxed (0.0057%)

If we take those figures as gospel (and I'm loathe to as the sample is statistically insignificant) one is ten times more likely to end up in ICU if unvaxxed than even partially vaxxed.
That is without considering adjustments for age, underlying conditions, medical history etc.

Considering the death stats, 50 is far to low to draw any kind of conclusion. You need to look at the dataset as a whole over the last few months.
Just on this, a little graphic to illustrate.

 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
Rumours rife - eg hearing Hospitality closed earlier in the evening .. 7, 8 maybe

But then the ofeeee-shalll message from all ministers

 
Nov 27, 2018
4,975
6,744
Sounds about right for most of Europe - cutting through the usual politico spin:


Germany’s health minister today issued a stark warning amid rapidly rising Covid cases, telling Germans that by the end of winter everyone will either have “been vaccinated, recovered or died”.

Jens Spahn urged Germans to urgently get vaccinated – or, if applicable, get booster doses – as the country recorded more than 30,000 new coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours.

Hospitals warned that ICUs were almost full and that some patients were having to be transferred to far-away clinics to be treated, reports the Associated Press.

Spahn told reporters in Berlin:


By the end of this winter pretty much everyone in Germany ... will have been vaccinated, recovered or died.
Admitting that some saw his prediction as cynical, he added: “But it’s true. With the highly contagious delta variant this is very, very likely and that’s why we are recommending vaccination so urgently.”

He said he expects the EU to approve vaccines for five- to 11-year-olds at the end of the week. Children of school age have among the country’s highest infection rates.



 
Nov 27, 2018
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UK to review Covid travel rules in January, says minister

The UK is to review its Covid-19 travel rules in January, the country’s aviation minister said today.
Robert Courts’s comments come amid complaints from airlines who claim that day two coronavirus test requirements and passenger locator forms are putting people off travelling to and from the UK.
“We will be reviewing the policy in January. We’ll be looking to see what we can do at that stage,” Courts told the Airlines UK conference, reports Reuters.
He also said that reforming the UK’s airport slots system, which saw the usual “use it or lose it” takeoff and landing rights waived during the pandemic, remains a priority for the UK government.
“We are carefully considering the role of the slot system as part of our future aviation strategy,” he said.


Um, isn't "putting people off travelling (unnecessarily) to and from the UK" the whole bloody point?
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
Todays swabs ..



Test positivity up to 17.37% today (more than 1 in 6 PCR tests is positive)
 
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Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
What CAN you do with people like this?


A well-known anti-vaccination campaigner has told a court that he is the king and the Judge is a public servant.

Antonio Mureddu appeared at Letterkenny District Court in Co. Donegal today facing road traffic charges.

The 44-year-old is charged with having no insurance, using a fraudulent license plate and failing to give information to Gardai at Meencarragh, Ballybofey on October 23 this year. The Italian national, with an address at Main Street, Headford, Co. Galway, was stopped by Garda Michael Kilcoyne.

When stopped by Garda Kilcoyne, Mureddu's red Alfa Romeo car had the letters 'The I Job' instead of the proper license plate 09G19485.
 
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