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Emerging Virus'es ( Human, Animal, Bird ) + VARIANTS thread .. ( 02.12.21 - OMICRON new SA data: 2.4x higher risk of reinfection )

danger here

Member
Feb 17, 2019
2,644
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Vulkaneifel
The very depressing stand-outs of the past 18 months are 1) solidarity and empathy have a very short half-life and 2) there are a hell of a lot more stupid people in the world than I feared. Are people just thick, or is there something fundamentally wrong with educational systems that we’ve missed?
I happened to see a SCAMDEMIC comment under an online article last week and the name rang a bell. Girl who posted it by chance was in college with me 20 years ago, and a quick check on Linkedin and I see she's working in pharma / Biotech in quality control. You really couldn't make it up.

I'm inclined to think a lot of these people are for one reason or another lacking the mental fortitude to deal with modern life, and so turn to quackery, tarot cards, Garth Brooks protests, Gofundme for Jimmy's neighbour's cat's operation, Gemma O'Doherty and so on. The same happened in the States and UK with Brexit. With the internet, people that thirty years ago wrote angry letters to the editor, or phone-in trashy radio shows, are given the platform to think they are Mother Theresa or Allah himself.

That's my totally uninformed guess at what it might be.
 

Derryman

Member
Feb 17, 2019
6,300
7,141
Derry
I happened to see a SCAMDEMIC comment under an online article last week and the name rang a bell. Girl who posted it by chance was in college with me 20 years ago, and a quick check on Linkedin and I see she's working in pharma / Biotech in quality control. You really couldn't make it up.

I'm inclined to think a lot of these people are for one reason or another lacking the mental fortitude to deal with modern life, and so turn to quackery, tarot cards, Garth Brooks protests, Gofundme for Jimmy's neighbour's cat's operation, Gemma O'Doherty and so on. The same happened in the States and UK with Brexit. With the internet, people that thirty years ago wrote angry letters to the editor, or phone-in trashy radio shows, are given the platform to think they are Mother Theresa or Allah himself.

That's my totally uninformed guess at what it might be.
What if they are all the sane ones?
And we sensible people are the wingnuts?

Asking for a friend ( imaginary ) .
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,975
6,744
What if they are all the sane ones?
And we sensible people are the wingnuts?

Asking for a friend ( imaginary ) .
Then I'd be happy enough to be a wingnut. At the time, August Landmesser (in the photo below), would have been a wingnut and a crank.

Base what you do on the facts and science available at the time. Don't do things that could cause unnecessary damage and death. If that seems as being a lunatic or being awkward, then so be it.


uid_95715d39ba5ad466f6964e58de2a9e1b1564066535389_width_1280_play_0_pos_0_gs_0_height_720_august-landmesser-mial-powody-by-znienawidziec-nazistow-fot-wiki.md.jpg
 
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Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
I happened to see a SCAMDEMIC comment under an online article last week and the name rang a bell. Girl who posted it by chance was in college with me 20 years ago, and a quick check on Linkedin and I see she's working in pharma / Biotech in quality control. You really couldn't make it up.

I'm inclined to think a lot of these people are for one reason or another lacking the mental fortitude to deal with modern life, and so turn to quackery, tarot cards, Garth Brooks protests, Gofundme for Jimmy's neighbour's cat's operation, Gemma O'Doherty and so on. The same happened in the States and UK with Brexit. With the internet, people that thirty years ago wrote angry letters to the editor, or phone-in trashy radio shows, are given the platform to think they are Mother Theresa or Allah himself.

That's my totally uninformed guess at what it might be.
Just talking about and saying this to a journo friend on mine on whatsapp chat

I said:

Im convinced soc media has a huge part in this. Giving every nutjob a platform that was not there b4.

Talking about that on lbc re yaxley lennon

Said since he was banned from platforms his public meetings have gotten way smaller, less effective

I just think in general soc media is a very potent organising platform. Also finds people of like mind. Its created the following in fact .. people only seeking like minds only and forming round that. Also great for spreading "facts" that do not need to be backed up.

Divides societies along hardened lines.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
New numbers in UK .. ouch:

These numbers, like all statistics, need to be viewed in comparison with previous outbreaks. The UK's current 7-day average of deaths is 64, or roughly 1 per million (today's figures would have included a weekend backlog). At its peak in January, this was 18 per million. Current hospital and ICU rates are approximately 12-15% of what they were at the peak of the previous wave in January, in the context of case numbers which are not very much lower than last winter's. Whatever else, the effects of vaccinations on death and serious illness are being shown in sharp relief. (I see some people are suggesting these figures are being cooked, well maybe so but let's bear in mind that it is Dr Yvonne Doyle and Public Health England that produce them, not Boris and Sajid).

Incidentally, the other European countries first and worst affected by the Delta wave (Benelux, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Cyprus, Malta) have all seen their official case numbers decline or stabilise in the last week, so it may be that hospital and ICU numbers may follow suit. Perhaps the level of virus out there has finally started to hit the 'vaccine wall' as the 20-35 age cohort gradually gets fully vaxed. Our own numbers seem to have stabilised also but not yet started to reduce while France and the US are still very much on the rise.

 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
Just leave these things alone FFS



Prions = eg Mad Cow

The terror in some of the replies

10 year incubation period. NO CURE what so ever

In a 2011 paper, his team reported that prions can spread through aerosols, at least in mice
 
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Bonkers

Member
Feb 15, 2019
4,965
4,701
Just leave these things alone FFS



Prions = eg Mad Cow

The terror in some of the replies

10 year incubation period. NO CURE what so ever

In a 2011 paper, his team reported that prions can spread through aerosols, at least in mice
That’s the mad cow thing I was going on about in the U.K. There was a Panorama programme about and it was terrifying……


 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
That’s the mad cow thing I was going on about in the U.K. There was a Panorama programme about and it was terrifying……

If you read the article and realise what one might say is reckless behaviour, shortcuts, even vanity could have actually been how Covid got out in the wild. Its not such a huge stretch of the imagination is it?
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
NPHET presser this avo .. Optimism abounds .. Moving to it being endemic

Yes they finally seem to have taken the vaccine bull by the horns in the past few days, what with vaccinations of 12-15 year olds from next week, walk-in vaxes now for anyone over 16, and boosters for the over-80's etc from September. You really wonder could all this not have been done a month or more ago? - has vaccine supply really improved that much in recent weeks? All the endless dreary debates from earlier this year (like who if anyone could get AZ or J&J, should we have vaccination certs etc?) now seem like light-years ago (and as I understand it, they are now giving AZ to anyone aged 18-34 if they do not wish to wait for an MRNA vaccine).
 

Leinsterview

Member
Mar 11, 2019
659
778
This is how I see things at present. Some 300000 odd confirmed cases. To get the actual cases you need to multiply by at least 4. The CDC in the States, with their vast database, have established a multiplication factor of 4.2. With the higher test rate in the US they are likely to have fewer asymptomatics slipping though the net than here. So a ‘4 times’ factor is actually conservative.
This means that the infection based immunity is of the order of 25%. Factor in 56% of the general population being double vaccinated and allow for overlap and you have about 67% general immunity. Allowing for our continued excellent vaccination rates, the low proportion of refusers, and ongoing infections we should reach the Holy Grail of herd immunity by the end of September. Another positive: the non-vaccinated are largely the younger population who are less likely to pick up the bug.
My sources are:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/#global

The global picture is gloomier: we could end up as an oasis of non-covidity in a covid-ridden world.
Personally looking at the structure of the vaccinological target, the spike protein, the pinpoint nature of mutations etc, I think the degree of mutation required to arrive at vaccine resistance would necessarily involve a series of incremental steps which would take decades to come to full fruition. I hope I’m not hoisted on this petard.
Incidentally this guy talks a lot of sense:


 
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Truthisfree

Member
Nov 27, 2018
3,189
2,330
This is how I see things at present. Some 300000 odd confirmed cases. To get the actual cases you need to multiply by at least 4. The CDC in the States, with their vast database, have established a multiplication factor of 4.2. With the higher test rate in the US they are likely to have fewer asymptomatics slipping though the net than here. So a ‘4 times’ factor is actually conservative.
This means that the infection based immunity is of the order of 25%. Factor in 56% of the general population being double vaccinated and allow for overlap and you have about 67% general immunity. Allowing for our continued excellent vaccination rates, the low proportion of refusers, and ongoing infections we should reach the Holy Grail of herd immunity by the end of September. Another positive: the non-vaccinated are largely the younger population who are less likely to pick up the bug.
My sources are:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/#global

The global picture is gloomier: we could end up as n oasis of non-covidity in a covid-ridden world.
Personally looking at the structure of the vaccinological target, the spike protein, the pinpoint nature of mutations etc, I think the degree of mutation required to arrive at vaccine resistance would involve a series of incremental steps which would take decades to come to full fruition. I hope I’m not hoisted on this petard.
Incidentally this guy talks a lot of sense:


He’s pretty clear about what he is communicating, and this will take a decade to see out, I don’t know about decades though, maybe, maybe not, I tend to err on the positive side 😬
 
Nov 29, 2018
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Leinsterview

Member
Mar 11, 2019
659
778
He’s pretty clear about what he is communicating, and this will take a decade to see out, I don’t know about decades though, maybe, maybe not, I tend to err on the positive side 😬
I'm actually being optimistic here: I think it will take 'decades' for a bug to emerge that is impervious to current vaccines -- if it does at all. People tend to fixate on covid incidence figures; more important is the hospitalisation rate. If covid is relegated to 'common cold' status then it's not really all that big a deal if it spreads -- within that specific context. I mean if old-fashioned 'common cold' coronavirus spread around then nobody would bat an eyelid.
There is also a 'white knight' on the way: Valneva (well worth googling).
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
Todays nums:



But then I suppose the numbers that actually matter now are Hospitalizations and deaths which relative to the number infected is very low?

The unknown unknown of course is down the line with likes of long covid, will we have a large number of people who got affected ( vs who were vaccinated ) also suffering long term illness as a result that will weight on the health system?
 

Truthisfree

Member
Nov 27, 2018
3,189
2,330
I'm actually being optimistic here: I think it will take 'decades' for a bug to emerge that is impervious to current vaccines -- if it does at all. People tend to fixate on covid incidence figures; more important is the hospitalisation rate. If covid is relegated to 'common cold' status then it's not really all that big a deal if it spreads -- within that specific context. I mean if old-fashioned 'common cold' coronavirus spread around then nobody would bat an eyelid.
There is also a 'white knight' on the way: Valneva (well worth googling).
Yes I’ve read about Valneva and tbf there may well be more on the way. I guess after the last year and a half I am tentative about being over optimistic, I don’t want to be disappointed. I certainly hope you are right and I am way off…
 
Nov 29, 2018
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I'm actually being optimistic here: I think it will take 'decades' for a bug to emerge that is impervious to current vaccines -- if it does at all. People tend to fixate on covid incidence figures; more important is the hospitalisation rate. If covid is relegated to 'common cold' status then it's not really all that big a deal if it spreads -- within that specific context. I mean if old-fashioned 'common cold' coronavirus spread around then nobody would bat an eyelid.
There is also a 'white knight' on the way: Valneva (well worth googling).
Interesting but would have a concern that this could be another AZ supply debacle as the main manufacturing is in non EU UK and there seems to be substantial UK government investment. Until the Swedish plant is up and running for this vaccine booster, I would take a very cautiously optimistic view.
 
Nov 29, 2018
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Todays nums:



But then I suppose the numbers that actually matter now are Hospitalizations and deaths which relative to the number infected is very low?

The unknown unknown of course is down the line with likes of long covid, will we have a large number of people who got affected ( vs who were vaccinated ) also suffering long term illness as a result that will weight on the health system?
Numbers of deaths in the north are rising with a similar number of daily cases.

I find it terrifying that there are unvaccinated staff still working in healthcare in Ireland, supposedly not dealing with patients but still in the health care facilities. Figures are beginning to emerge of people, some fully vaccinated, catching covid in hospitals. Anyone working in an are is health/medical/social care should be vaccinated or sacked. Immediately suspend without pay and give them two months to get fully vaccinated or find a new career.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
Numbers of deaths in the north are rising with a similar number of daily cases.

I find it terrifying that there are unvaccinated staff still working in healthcare in Ireland, supposedly not dealing with patients but still in the health care facilities. Figures are beginning to emerge of people, some fully vaccinated, catching covid in hospitals. Anyone working in an are is health/medical/social care should be vaccinated or sacked. Immediately suspend without pay and give them two months to get fully vaccinated or find a new career.
Yes I posted on this yesterday I think and I completely agree. The bigger question for me, which I posed yesterday but got no suggestions, is how on earth a quarter of care home workers in the North could be still unvaxed at this stage i.e. were they not vaxed at the start like here, if not why not, and who knew and did they follow this up? The North started vaccinations in care homes in December, 8 months ago!

Maybe they should be working in that worthiest of TV channels, CNN......


Also, on the North, a rather unsettling item on the takeup of vaccines among the younger age groups:-

 
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midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
Todays nums:



But then I suppose the numbers that actually matter now are Hospitalizations and deaths which relative to the number infected is very low?

The unknown unknown of course is down the line with likes of long covid, will we have a large number of people who got affected ( vs who were vaccinated ) also suffering long term illness as a result that will weight on the health system?
It would be interesting to see where the rise has happened - the latest HPSC report, which does not cover today's figures, shows increases in 9 counties only between this week and last week, with Mayo and Cavan showing the biggest increases. Louth, Donegal and Galway were all down, albeit only slightly. Henry of the HSE also said today that case and hospital numbers were rising more slowly than he had expected.

 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
More on vaccinations - 6 EU countries including ourselves now ahead of the UK in terms of % of population fully vaxed. I see Malta seems to be up near 90% and there has indeed been a large drop in their case numbers recently. Hopefully that will come for us too.


More concerningly, within that lower UK figure, it looks as though the North has barely 65% of the population with even one dose and is well behind England, Scotland and to a lesser extent Wales.

 
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ruserious

Member
Dec 4, 2018
5,314
5,152
Just looked at the Yellow vest page on Facebook. They’re trying to say the tragic crash in Cork was caused by the vaccine. How low can these things go?
Dirty scumbags.

 

soccop

Pavlov rings my bell.
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Nov 28, 2018
10,445
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Temporally dislocated.
Ghey are f---kers. accidents happen we are grieving but my brother went to a funeral of a lad this evening who the other day was driving a lorry in Dub., he was feeling unwell and pulled in 28 years, they were sympathising with my brother as he was sympathising with them

Sorry to hear this RT, things are awful at a time like this without these lunatics complicating the grief.
 

Leinsterview

Member
Mar 11, 2019
659
778
I touched on this matter before.
The last eighteen months have been an education. And it has not all been staged applause. I was made persona non grata in an oft-frequented cubby hole in one of my favourite lunchtime establishments being unceremoniously told by the proprietor that ‘no doctors were allowed' in the said cubby hole. Essentially one of the regulars (a prominent retired professional person -- abbrev.: PRPP) was spooked by the fact that I see a covid positive patients. Just before the last lockdown the PRPP openly stated: 'we can't have people who see covid patients in here'. He was supported, albeit that this was later reversed, by the proprietor.
It was quite an eye-opener: the first time I've been subjected to open discrimination of the basis of race, nationality, religion, gender...or occupation.
Matters were checked with the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission: discrimination on the basis of gender, race, religion or sexual orientation places you on the wrong side of the law -- not occupation.
I'm actually thinking of doing a Rosa Parks: defiantly marching into the forbidden zone and planking myself down.
I confronted the PRPP a few days ago: it was a ping-pong discussion with I repeatedly stating that 'your attitude is beneath contempt' and being repeatedly told to f*** off.
From hero to leper/pariah.
No blacks, dogs, Irish.......or doctors:eek::eek:
 

Derryman

Member
Feb 17, 2019
6,300
7,141
Derry
I touched on this matter before.
The last eighteen months have been an education. And it has not all been staged applause. I was made persona non grata in an oft-frequented cubby hole in one of my favourite lunchtime establishments being unceremoniously told by the proprietor that ‘no doctors were allowed' in the said cubby hole. Essentially one of the regulars (a prominent retired professional person -- abbrev.: PRPP) was spooked by the fact that I see a covid positive patients. Just before the last lockdown the PRPP openly stated: 'we can't have people who see covid patients in here'. He was supported, albeit that this was later reversed, by the proprietor.
It was quite an eye-opener: the first time I've been subjected to open discrimination of the basis of race, nationality, religion, gender...or occupation.
Matters were checked with the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission: discrimination on the basis of gender, race, religion or sexual orientation places you on the wrong side of the law -- not occupation.
I'm actually thinking of doing a Rosa Parks: defiantly marching into the forbidden zone and planking myself down.
I confronted the PRPP a few days ago: it was a ping-pong discussion with I repeatedly stating that 'your attitude is beneath contempt' and being repeatedly told to f*** off.
From hero to leper/pariah.
No blacks, dogs, Irish.......or doctors:eek::eek:

Karma would have your PRPP, have a heart attack during your exchange, which could have been contained by the attention of the only medical professional present, however you would have been obliged to respect his wishes.


I could never be that person



Am not prominent am not professional, and by the looks of the bank account won't be retired.
 
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Round tower

Member
Feb 16, 2019
2,579
960
Sorry to hear this RT, things are awful at a time like this without these lunatics complicating the grief.
Thanks, i did not know the lad, i knew his father and brother.
It's not easy especialy as she had came throught the worst of the pandemic without getting it, when she went in we thought she was safe from it, think it was the first outbreak they had in the hospital for a number of months
 
Nov 29, 2018
6,945
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I touched on this matter before.
The last eighteen months have been an education. And it has not all been staged applause. I was made persona non grata in an oft-frequented cubby hole in one of my favourite lunchtime establishments being unceremoniously told by the proprietor that ‘no doctors were allowed' in the said cubby hole. Essentially one of the regulars (a prominent retired professional person -- abbrev.: PRPP) was spooked by the fact that I see a covid positive patients. Just before the last lockdown the PRPP openly stated: 'we can't have people who see covid patients in here'. He was supported, albeit that this was later reversed, by the proprietor.
It was quite an eye-opener: the first time I've been subjected to open discrimination of the basis of race, nationality, religion, gender...or occupation.
Matters were checked with the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission: discrimination on the basis of gender, race, religion or sexual orientation places you on the wrong side of the law -- not occupation.
I'm actually thinking of doing a Rosa Parks: defiantly marching into the forbidden zone and planking myself down.
I confronted the PRPP a few days ago: it was a ping-pong discussion with I repeatedly stating that 'your attitude is beneath contempt' and being repeatedly told to f*** off.
From hero to leper/pariah.
No blacks, dogs, Irish.......or doctors:eek::eek:
Is he an anti vaxer also?
 

Bill

Member
Mar 9, 2019
2,243
2,438
Livin' La Veda Lockdown
I touched on this matter before.
The last eighteen months have been an education. And it has not all been staged applause. I was made persona non grata in an oft-frequented cubby hole in one of my favourite lunchtime establishments being unceremoniously told by the proprietor that ‘no doctors were allowed' in the said cubby hole. Essentially one of the regulars (a prominent retired professional person -- abbrev.: PRPP) was spooked by the fact that I see a covid positive patients. Just before the last lockdown the PRPP openly stated: 'we can't have people who see covid patients in here'. He was supported, albeit that this was later reversed, by the proprietor.
It was quite an eye-opener: the first time I've been subjected to open discrimination of the basis of race, nationality, religion, gender...or occupation.
Matters were checked with the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission: discrimination on the basis of gender, race, religion or sexual orientation places you on the wrong side of the law -- not occupation.
I'm actually thinking of doing a Rosa Parks: defiantly marching into the forbidden zone and planking myself down.
I confronted the PRPP a few days ago: it was a ping-pong discussion with I repeatedly stating that 'your attitude is beneath contempt' and being repeatedly told to f*** off.
From hero to leper/pariah.
No blacks, dogs, Irish.......or doctors:eek::eek:
You need to go old school with that chap , and by old school I mean brass knuckles.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
Two things actually tie together here - Climate Change and Pandemics. It seems we might unfortunately be seeing more pandemics in our lifetime. It is a big topic of discussion, even made it on a major chunk of Brendan O Connor show on RTE Radio 1 this morn ...

eg - https://newsroom.clevelandclinic.org/2021/04/21/how-climate-change-may-affect-future-pandemics/


The similarities between climate change and pandemics do not end there. Just as climate change is worsened by deforestation, so too are emerging infectious disease and “zoonotic diseases” of animal origin worsened by environmental degradation and encroachment on wildlife terrains, increasing the displacement and spread of novel pathogens to humans. Thus, climate change and COVID are related cousins; they are both born from similar underlying causes.
 
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