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German Federal And State Elections 2021.

Prof Honeydew

Member
Nov 28, 2018
1,394
3,494

Germany's Christian Democrats, strongly favoured by current opinion polls, to win the Federal election in the autumn, have plumped for Angela Merkel's favoured contender to lead them. This will be their first Bundestag campaign without her as the candidate for Chancellor in 16 years as they seek to win a fifth election in a row and marks the end of an era in which Germany's influence within the EU has grown to an unprecedented level.

Laschet, premier of Germany biggest state Nordrhein-Westfalen, is regarded as a centrist in the Merkel mode, defeated Friedrich Merz, his more fiscally conservative opponent, in the last round after lightweight Norbert Röttgen had been eliminated. The result suggests the party is banking on continuing Merkel's appeal to former Social Democrat and Free Democrat voters rather than courting those who might defect to the far-right alternative AfD.

If Laschet becomes the next Chancellor, he is likely to continue the same strategy as Merkel in the EU and, if EU affairs occupy some of his early bandwidth, he is more likely to assume a leading role quicker than Merz whose more German-orientated approach and less consensual style will take longer to establish. Much would depend on what sort of relationship he'd have with Macron who sees Mutti's departure as a chance for France to take up a bigger leadership role in the EU.

Since Irish and German interests have converged on most EU issues during the Merkel era, Laschet's victory would appear to suit us better than the uncertainty Merz might create. However, anointed successors don't always behave like their patrons expect, particularly when they have to define themselves domestically before they can turn their attentions beyond their national borders. Even Merkel needed two full terms as Chancellor before she began to exert her personal influence on EU affairs.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558

Germany's Christian Democrats, strongly favoured by current opinion polls, to win the Federal election in the autumn, have plumped for Angela Merkel's favoured contender to lead them. This will be their first Bundestag campaign without her as the candidate for Chancellor in 16 years as they seek to win a fifth election in a row and marks the end of an era in which Germany's influence within the EU has grown to an unprecedented level.

Laschet, premier of Germany biggest state Nordrhein-Westfalen, is regarded as a centrist in the Merkel mode, defeated Friedrich Merz, his more fiscally conservative opponent, in the last round after lightweight Norbert Röttgen had been eliminated. The result suggests the party is banking on continuing Merkel's appeal to former Social Democrat and Free Democrat voters rather than courting those who might defect to the far-right alternative AfD.

If Laschet becomes the next Chancellor, he is likely to continue the same strategy as Merkel in the EU and, if EU affairs occupy some of his early bandwidth, he is more likely to assume a leading role quicker than Merz whose more German-orientated approach and less consensual style will take longer to establish. Much would depend on what sort of relationship he'd have with Macron who sees Mutti's departure as a chance for France to take up a bigger leadership role in the EU.

Since Irish and German interests have converged on most EU issues during the Merkel era, Laschet's victory would appear to suit us better than the uncertainty Merz might create. However, anointed successors don't always behave like their patrons expect, particularly when they have to define themselves domestically before they can turn their attentions beyond their national borders. Even Merkel needed two full terms as Chancellor before she began to exert her personal influence on EU affairs.
Hopefully he will have more success and longevity that her original putative successor, 'AKK'. German politics are a good deal less predictable and consensual than they used to be.
 

ainm_eile^2

Member
Jul 30, 2020
209
191
Can't wait for the British Establishment & Tabloids to hail him as the man who will liberate Europe from the tyrannical EUSSR, only to throw a tantrum when he expresses support for an EU army or whatever.
 

Clanrickard

Member
Jan 30, 2019
587
69
Anti-BDS and soft on China and Russia. Worth noting he is a practising Catholic and opposed to same sex marriage. Interesting in contrasting in Germany that this is considered a normal stance to take and doesn't attract the opprobrium and hysteria it would here.
 
D

Deleted member 146

Guest
Anti-BDS and soft on China and Russia. Worth noting he is a practising Catholic and opposed to same sex marriage. Interesting in contrasting in Germany that this is considered a normal stance to take and doesn't attract the opprobrium and hysteria it would here.
Maybe, just maybe, that is because marriage in Germany includes same-sex couples and has done since 2017.

Additionally, I'd probably not be too far off making the assumption that someone such as yourself isn't:
a) au fait with the minutiae of German domestic politics, and:
b) all that well connected with liberal Germans for whom this was an important issue prior to 2017.
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,975
6,744
What I meant was he was opposed and yet it has not hurt his career.
Why would it? His religion and personal views do not need to dominate the CDU leadership (and probably the chancellorship). German politics are relatively pragmatic; being able to get the job done and keep the country running tends to overtake personal opinions.

Biden is a Catholic. He's also a Democrat. I very much doubt he's going to call for all pro-choice activists/supporters to be burnt at the stake.

I can't stand hummus. That doesn't mean that, if I were to "accidentally" end up in a position of power, I'd ban hummus.
 

Clanrickard

Member
Jan 30, 2019
587
69
Why would it? His religion and personal views do not need to dominate the CDU leadership (and probably the chancellorship). German politics are relatively pragmatic; being able to get the job done and keep the country running tends to overtake personal opinions.

Biden is a Catholic. He's also a Democrat. I very much doubt he's going to call for all pro-choice activists/supporters to be burnt at the stake.

I can't stand hummus. That doesn't mean that, if I were to "accidentally" end up in a position of power, I'd ban hummus.
All very wise of you and I agree that is how it should be. That is not what happens a lot of the time in Ireland.
 

cumulonimbus

Member
Mar 16, 2019
265
129
I wonder if it would help or hurt the CDU to lose an East German as the party leader. The ADF has the larger part of their vote share in the former East for instance but perhaps they should be seen not as a direct competitor to the CDU ? I would imagine the change must be welcome though if only considering for how long Merkel has held the position also I can't imagine Macron stands any chance at re-election so he has a couple of years to somehow assume a dominant role in Europe ?
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,975
6,744
I'd add that Ireland is not a "normal" European democracy either, in the sense that anyone who has experienced a functioning European democracy would know it as.
True, but I’d add that “functioning” is more of a spectrum than a binary.
 

danger here

Member
Feb 17, 2019
2,644
1,921
Vulkaneifel
I wonder if it would help or hurt the CDU to lose an East German as the party leader. The ADF has the larger part of their vote share in the former East for instance but perhaps they should be seen not as a direct competitor to the CDU ? I would imagine the change must be welcome though if only considering for how long Merkel has held the position also I can't imagine Macron stands any chance at re-election so he has a couple of years to somehow assume a dominant role in Europe ?
Short answer is that it won't make much difference to the CDU, German politics is incredibly boring and parochialism doesn't really exist in the same way as say whether Mayo has a Taoiseach or whether Mehole is good for Cork and so on. The AfD are tearing each other to ribbons internally, and the rural parts of eastern Germany for the most part would vote CDU by default, with urban areas split between SPD and Linke. The ones who don't would be AfD, living on the dole in a Plattenbau in Halle or Chemnitz, where walking the dog is the highlight of the day.
 

Prof Honeydew

Member
Nov 28, 2018
1,394
3,494
I wonder if it would help or hurt the CDU to lose an East German as the party leader. The ADF has the larger part of their vote share in the former East for instance but perhaps they should be seen not as a direct competitor to the CDU ? I would imagine the change must be welcome though if only considering for how long Merkel has held the position also I can't imagine Macron stands any chance at re-election so he has a couple of years to somehow assume a dominant role in Europe ?
I don't think it will have much of an effect. The AfD is strongest in Saxony where they go their own way no matter what. Merkel's local base is in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern where she represents the Rostock constituency and, because she never held any role in regional politics, her appeal is national rather than tied to any particular locality.

As premier of Nordrhein-Westfalen, Laschet has a much stronger local following and, having wrested Germany's biggest state from almost seventy years of unbroken SPD rule, has established himself as a serious presence in the CDU. On the other hand,, he's now being accused by some political commentators of being too provincial in his outlook and not up to national leadership However, I don't think that will bother him unduly seeing that Helmut Kohl was dismissed by the same sources as thick yokel from the Pfalz as was Merkel as a token woman and token Ossi.

Laschet's biggest worry must be repeating the fate of those coming after the two other CDU Chancellors who dominated German politics for a generation. Adenauer was followed by two short-lived successors before the party went into fifteen years of opposition while Kohl's successor Wolfgang Schäuble was forced out within a year by a financing scandal and Merkel, who came next, didn't even get the chance to lead the CDU/CSU into the 2002 elections when a bad run of state results allowed Edmund Stoiber, the leader of Bavarian sister party the CSU, to top the list on the ballot paper.

In fact, seeing that current CSU head honcho Markus Söder also has his eyes on leading the alliance, Laschet will need to be seen to perform in two crucial state elections in March where the CDU are hoping to recover Rheinland-Pfalz from the SPD and Baden-Würettemberg from the Greens. But at least he's getting the chance to jump straight into action before party rivals can inflict their death of a thousand cuts as happened to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

This coming autumn's federal election is coming at a time of significant change in German politics as the SPD, the CDU's coalition partner and the other half of the two-and-a-bit party system that has been the norm since 1949, could be on the brink of terminal decline like other social democrat parties in France, Belgium, Holland and Greece. At the moment, they're polling at a historically low 15% and prospects between now and election day day are looking more downbeat than upbeat. As a result, the tactics of the other parties five parties likely to be returned to the Bundestag revolve around how much of the carcass they can scavenge.

By picking Laschet instead of his rival Friedrich Merz, the CDU are betting on attracting centrist and soft-left SPD and FDP votes that might otherwise drift to the Greens rather than defending their right wing from the far-right AfD and they're hoping that their competence in dealing with COVID will influence the undecided to stick with the familiar rather than going for the radical AfD alternative. However, they'll be going for an unprecedented twenty years in power and, if they're still battling in a month's time to get the pandemic death rate down from its current record levels, they could end up bleeding votes to both the Greens on the left and the AfD on the right.

The ball is in Laschet's court for the next nine weeks. He has the chance to prove himself in Baden-Würettemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz and, if he gets a half-decent result in both, he can plan ahead for the championship decider in the autumn. But if he fails to rise to the occasion, he'll leave the CDU/CSU with one almighty headache as they face into the federal election.
 
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Truthisfree

Member
Nov 27, 2018
3,189
2,330
Can't wait for the British Establishment & Tabloids to hail him as the man who will liberate Europe from the tyrannical EUSSR, only to throw a tantrum when he expresses support for an EU army or whatever.
Who cares what the British establishment and their ridiculous tabloids say about him? They no longer matter and I am sure lots of people around the EU have reduced their reading of British newspapers and media as I have in the past few weeks. They have very little influence over us Euopeans anymore.
 

Clanrickard

Member
Jan 30, 2019
587
69
Who cares what the British establishment and their ridiculous tabloids say about him? They no longer matter and I am sure lots of people around the EU have reduced their reading of British newspapers and media as I have in the past few weeks. They have very little influence over us Euopeans anymore.
A lot of people care. Joe Biden's first foreign trip is widely rumored to be the UK. It is still a big powerful wealthy country.
 

Vega1447

Member
Feb 17, 2019
2,781
1,888
A lot of people care. Joe Biden's first foreign trip is widely rumored to be the UK. It is still a big powerful wealthy country.
Perhaps to the G7 in Cornwall not a visit to England per se. It will be enjoyable to watch Bozo squirm as he tries to ingratiate himself with Biden.

And Canada and perhaps Mexico are likely to be his first foreign trips.
 
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MOTS

Member
Dec 24, 2019
724
1,062
Perhaps. We shall see.
Just open your eyes and you'll see right now.
Anyway , the good news for all Brexiteers is that Rees-Mogg has advised all and sundry that " the benefits of Brexit will materialize in approximately 50 years time " - in fact, he's so certain of that he has transferred truckloads of his wealth Fund to the EU already now.

All you gotta' do is believe - and then some.
 
D

Deleted member 146

Guest
We are already seeing.
What? No. What're seeing now is just what happens when businesses fill in the wrong forms (having been told there wasn't going to be any forms) to import their goods into the EU's customs union (which they were told they wouldn't be leaving).
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
What? No. What're seeing now is just what happens when businesses fill in the wrong forms (having been told there wasn't going to be any forms) to import their goods into the EU's customs union (which they were told they wouldn't be leaving).
That can't be true, cookie, as I distinctly remember the British Prime Minister stating that trade will be "frictionless" and that exporters in NI could throw their forms "in the bin." As we all know Prime Ministers never tell lies.

Being serious for a moment, we are already seeing Brexit in action, as we have seen reports of quite a few businesses suspending exports, and we have seen quite a few European businesses stopping exports to the UK altogether because of the cost and complex nature of the paperwork. And that's besides the reports of the costs of these international transactions being passed on to customers, and the loss of several cross Irish Sea ferry crossings per week already. And it's only the 19th of January...
 

Clanrickard

Member
Jan 30, 2019
587
69
Just open your eyes and you'll see right now.
Anyway , the good news for all Brexiteers is that Rees-Mogg has advised all and sundry that " the benefits of Brexit will materialize in approximately 50 years time " - in fact, he's so certain of that he has transferred truckloads of his wealth Fund to the EU already now.

All you gotta' do is believe - and then some.
We are already seeing.
We are not. Brexit happened less than 12 months ago. No one has any idea how it will end up in 5, 10, 50 years.
 
D

Deleted member 146

Guest
We are not. Brexit happened less than 12 months ago. No one has any idea how it will end up in 5, 10, 50 years.
No, but literally every study done on the matter (aside from the widely discredited Economists for Brexit one), including the Treasury themselves, predict a negative impact on the UK's GDP compared to what it would be had they remianed. The only disagreement has been over how badly impacted it would be.

The UK government’s own estimate suggests a trade deal like the one agreed to this week would leave the country’s output 5% lower in 15 years than if Brexit hadn’t happened. Without such a deal, its estimate was 7.6% lower. (These estimates predate the announcement of the final deal).

These assessments are based on the assumptions that trade will become costlier, either because of higher tariffs or more red tape, and that immigration will decrease. Over time, these effects are expected to compound, because in the long run less trade and less immigration will mean less innovation and therefore less growth and lower incomes.
https://qz.com/1950179/a-brexit-deal-is-done-but-the-uk-economic-impact-is-just-starting/
The OECD in its Economic Survey for the UK 2020 expects that the impact of a comprehensive FTA compared to the current trading relationship between the U.K and EU would be a 6.1 per cent fall in exports and a 7.8 per cent fall in imports leading to a 3.5 per cent output loss over the medium term. Ending freedom of movement of EU citizens would hit service industries particularly hard and could result in a further loss of 0.7 per cent in output terms. They note that given the UK has a well-designed regulatory regime for services, some of the loss could be compensated for by speeding up visa deliverance, and reforms to procurement and data flows, however this could be difficult to implement in the short term and its impact on the medium term outlook would still be limited (with an output loss of 3.2 per cent as opposed to 3.5 per cent).

They estimate that the impact on the unemployment rate would be an increase of 1 percentage point on average across all sectors, though some sectors will fare worse than others.

The IFS estimate that the UK economy will be 2.1 per cent smaller in 2021 if the UK were to agree an FTA with the EU versus if the transition period had continued indefinitely. They expect net trade to reduce by 1.5 percentage points in 2021 with exports and imports falling by 7.4 per cent and 7 per cent respectively versus their 2018 levels.
  • The economic analysis shows that the UK will be economically worse-off outside of the EU under most plausible scenarios. The key question for the UK is how much worse-off it will be post-Brexit.
  • The seven other trade scenarios would be considerably better for the UK than WTO rules, but most would still lead to economic losses compared its current status as an EU member.
The mechanical effect of leaving the EU would be to improve the UK’s public finances by in the order of £8 billion – assuming the UK did not subsequently sign up to EEA or an alternative EU trade deal that involved contributions to the EU budget. However, there is an overwhelming consensus among those who have made estimates of the consequences of Brexit for national income that it would reduce national income in both the short and long runs. The economic reasons for this – increased uncertainty, higher costs of trade and reduced FDI – are clear. The only significant exception to this consensus is ‘Economists for Brexit’.

In the short run, our estimates therefore suggest that the overall effect of Brexit would be to damage the public finances. On the basis of estimates by NIESR, the effect could be between £20 billion and £40 billion in 2019–20, more than enough to wipe out the planned surplus. In the long run, lower GDP would likely mean lower cash levels of public spending.
The macroeconomic effects of Brexit: longer term
There have been many attempts to model the macroeconomic consequences of Brexit, nearly all of which find that there will be a long-term loss of GDP for the UK economy compared with the status quo projections of remaining fully in the EU and its single market.

The range of estimates is large, from a loss of GDP of nearly ten percentage points (in the least attractive trade and inward investment scenarios modelled by the Treasury, NIESR and the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE) 1 to a gain of four points (Minford, for Economists for Brexit)

And then we have good news like:

and


and


But yeah, it might all turn out rosy in the garden alright.
 

Clanrickard

Member
Jan 30, 2019
587
69
No, but literally every study done on the matter (aside from the widely discredited Economists for Brexit one), including the Treasury themselves, predict a negative impact on the UK's GDP compared to what it would be had they remianed. The only disagreement has been over how badly impacted it would be.

And then we have good news like:

and


and


But yeah, it might all turn out rosy in the garden alright.
So not every study as you say. As I said we'll only know in 30-50 years time what the consequences are for Brexit. Relentless focus on GDP is not a very good way of measuring an economy in the first place.
 

Clanrickard

Member
Jan 30, 2019
587
69
Not wrong. The date on that article is May 17, 2018 - almost a whole two years after the Brexit vote.
So what? Is there a time imit on pronouncement from the UK goveenemt? May was PM and that is what she said. You said the Brexiteers promised the UK would reamin in the Custom Unions. Some did but not all. Many were demanding a "clean break" from the word go.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
We are not. Brexit happened less than 12 months ago. No one has any idea how it will end up in 5, 10, 50 years.
Yes we are.
Empty shelves in supermarkets.
Ineo building their new range rover in France.
Kent turned into a car park, with massive delays to ferries.
Ireland UK haulage routes switched to Ireland France haulage routes.

Those are immediate repercussions of Brexit.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
So what? Is there a time imit on pronouncement from the UK goveenemt? May was PM and that is what she said. You said the Brexiteers promised the UK would reamin in the Custom Unions. Some did but not all. Many were demanding a "clean break" from the word go.
There's an immense difference between what is said before a vote and after. In that what's said after has no impact on polling.
 

Clanrickard

Member
Jan 30, 2019
587
69
There's an immense difference between what is said before a vote and after. In that what's said after has no impact on polling.

Key figures in both campaigns often said Brexit meant leaving the single market
Yes we are.
Empty shelves in supermarkets.
Ineo building their new range rover in France.
Kent turned into a car park, with massive delays to ferries.
Ireland UK haulage routes switched to Ireland France haulage routes.

Those are immediate repercussions of Brexit.
Yes immediate. There was always going to be a certain of chaos. We need to see long term.
 
D

Deleted member 146

Guest
Because that was after the UK voted to leave the EU. It is quite an important detail - the impact of which is now painfully evident - to announce after, rather than before, the decision has been taken.
 
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