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German Federal And State Elections 2021.

danger here

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Feb 17, 2019
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It doesn't bode well for the CDU. When in federal government, the CDU only manage to keep things going when they've a strong, decisive, recognisable leader; (Merkel, Kohl, Adenauer), otherwise they simply don't last long as BK And, as you've said, Laschet does not come across as a strong, decisive, recognisable leader.
With Laschet, I'm very much looking at it in terms of Europe, a weak German leadership very much changes the dynamic of things with Russia, Orban, PiS ect, not to mention China.

While my other half doesn't have much time for him, I'm starting to see Söder as a safe bet, albeit imperfect. He's done a decent-ish job in Bavaria playing the strict but fair role with Corona politics, and probably would be a better outcome for geopolitics in my opinion. Sort of like the tough uncle that gives you a boot up the hole because he wants you do well.
 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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The more I see and hear of Laschet, the more I hope he doesn't become the next BK. He appears clueless and weak, wishy washy answers and always with a stupid grin. Also a shocking command of English, and like Guido Westerwelle, seems too embarrassed and frequently asks to switch to German. Whatever about Söder's politics, it's more likely he would stand strong against the like of Putin. Laschet comes across like a goofy small town bank manager, in the mold of Enda Kenny actually.

There's a very good hour long pre pandemic debate on the future of Europe below including Laschet and the more articulate leader of the Greens. Worthwhile viewing it itself about the European project, and with the hindsight of what happened with Covid. One of the audience questions to the panel about the lack of quick EU responses to crises has played out in reality. Very, very impressed with Margaritis Schinas as well, glad to have him involved on our side during Brexit. For all the criticisms of the Comission generally, that guy seems to be on the ball, without soundbytes or bullshit.

Is his command of English really that big an issue? - Merkel never seems to speak it at all (though no doubt she can, and I believe she speaks Russian which no doubt came in handy).

How is it decided who goes forward, given that Laschet and Soder lead technically separate parties?

I'm increasingly of the view that the CDU/CSU are going out of power this time. I think they only clung on last time because Merkel was still on the ticket, and they seem to be consistently down at 26-28% these days which is shocking for them.
 

danger here

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Is his command of English really that big an issue? - Merkel never seems to speak it at all (though no doubt she can, and I believe she speaks Russian which no doubt came in handy).

How is it decided who goes forward, given that Laschet and Soder lead technically separate parties?

I'm increasingly of the view that the CDU/CSU are going out of power this time. I think they only clung on last time because Merkel was still on the ticket, and they seem to be consistently down at 26-28% these days which is shocking for them.
I think both parties are meeting next week to decide jointly on one to put forward in their interests. Not sure of the intricate details, but they are in a hurry somewhat as the rest bar the greens have already set in stone their candidates.

Regarding the language, it's not so much whether he can speak it or not, but rather his slightly insular viewpoint that is more based on insecurity than ability. The Romanian PM in that clip above has very broken English, yet still made the honest effort as he knew that with 6 or 7 different nationalities on the panel in a debate about Europe, it was par for the course. Laschet took the easy option within seconds as he's on home soil and knew well he can get away with shite talking about Helmut Kohl auf Deutsch for a few minutes and it will get him off the hook, particularly sitting next to his Green rival who articulated herself very well and made some excellent points about European cohesion, even though I disagree with her politics.

The substance of Laschet's answers were also shockingly bad, like Brian Cowen bad. His management of Corona in NRW is fairly open to criticism as well.

There are several other examples of Laschet speaking English and it's just like Trump with the autocue. Söder probably has less English I suspect, but at least he's not putting on an act. I thought the same of Merkel, but take a look at her address to Westminster, she spoke brilliantly.

The interesting few days ahead is essentially whether you go for the less popular safe bet, or throw a few quid on Söder, by far more popular in the polls but there has never been a CSU premier to date.
 

danger here

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Laschet is chosen over Söder, September election will be a disaster for the CDU.
 

Prof Honeydew

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Nov 28, 2018
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Laschet is chosen over Söder, September election will be a disaster for the CDU.
Getting worse and worse for the CDU/CSU. It's not just findings from one-off polls any more, they're now trailing the Greens in the average results over the past week.


Even worse for the outgoing government, the FDP are challenging the SPD for third place.

Okay, past elections have shown Green support declining in the run-up to the actual date as swing voters return to the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats but the size of the drop is a new feature in German politics. In the CDU's case, the drift to the Free Democrats is even more worrying as they look as if they're now attracting the business vote in their own right rather than being lent CDU votes to get over the 5% threshold.

If these trends continue, they'll end up getting squeezed on the economic right by the FDP and on the comfortable middle-class centre by the Greens. That may leave them courting the far-right AfD voters and selecting the former State counter-intelligence head Hans-Georg Maaßen (who was sacked by CSU leader Markus Söder for his reactionary statements regarding racist riots in Chemnitz) as candidate for a safe constituency seat in Thuringia is a worrying sign.


It looks as if Merkel has given up on the internal feuds breaking out on every level and is now concentrating solely on running the country for her last five months as Chancellor. Without her personal authority intervening, the sleaze and recriminations will only get worse unless the main actors realise they're all going to Hell in a handcart. At the moment, that doesn't look likely with Bild and Die Welt circling for the kill as they continue to expose PPE profiteering and party representatives in the pocket of the dictator of Azerbaijan. (On present form, the kleptocrat Iliyev family could destroy a second EU government having already done for Joe Muscat's clique in Malta).


Maybe the governing parties will get a bounce with the end of COVID restrictions but time is starting to close in. Heinz and Heidi from Hickstadt Hessen may have second thoughts about bunny-huggers running the Bundestag but that won't assuage their desire for retribution if they can't book their holiday in Majorca for a second summer in succession
 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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Getting worse and worse for the CDU/CSU. It's not just findings from one-off polls any more, they're now trailing the Greens in the average results over the past week.


Even worse for the outgoing government, the FDP are challenging the SPD for third place.

Okay, past elections have shown Green support declining in the run-up to the actual date as swing voters return to the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats but the size of the drop is a new feature in German politics. In the CDU's case, the drift to the Free Democrats is even more worrying as they look as if they're now attracting the business vote in their own right rather than being lent CDU votes to get over the 5% threshold.

If these trends continue, they'll end up getting squeezed on the economic right by the FDP and on the comfortable middle-class centre by the Greens. That may leave them courting the far-right AfD voters and selecting the former State counter-intelligence head Hans-Georg Maaßen (who was sacked by CSU leader Markus Söder for his reactionary statements regarding racist riots in Chemnitz) as candidate for a safe constituency seat in Thuringia is a worrying sign.


It looks as if Merkel has given up on the internal feuds breaking out on every level and is now concentrating solely on running the country for her last five months as Chancellor. Without her personal authority intervening, the sleaze and recriminations will only get worse unless the main actors realise they're all going to Hell in a handcart. At the moment, that doesn't look likely with Bild and Die Welt circling for the kill as they continue to expose PPE profiteering and party representatives in the pocket of the dictator of Azerbaijan. (On present form, the kleptocrat Iliyev family could destroy a second EU government having already done for Joe Muscat's clique in Malta).


Maybe the governing parties will get a bounce with the end of COVID restrictions but time is starting to close in. Heinz and Heidi from Hickstadt Hessen may have second thoughts about bunny-huggers running the Bundestag but that won't assuage their desire for retribution if they can't book their holiday in Majorca for a second summer in succession
So it's looking like Green/SPD/FDP, or do Die LInke come into the equation? If the SPD do really badly they may decide to stay in opposition this time?

Merkel may have been a great Chancellor (though I still think the jury's out on that) but she is leaving behind a party in absolute tatters.
 

Prof Honeydew

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So it's looking like Green/SPD/FDP, or do Die LInke come into the equation? If the SPD do really badly they may decide to stay in opposition this time?

Merkel may have been a great Chancellor (though I still think the jury's out on that) but she is leaving behind a party in absolute tatters.
Die Linke is the continuation of the old East German Communists and, while they have repackaged themselves like their equivalents in other former Soviet bloc countries, they still carry a lot of baggage in the old West German states where they rarely manage to break the 5% threshold. They probably would have disappeared by now if former SPD leader Oskar Lafontaine hadn't brought a splinter from his old party to join them in 2007. The SPD and the Greens might accept them as coalition partners but, even if Die Linke held their ideological noses, there's no chance of them at the moment being part of a coaliton that included the CDU/CSU, AfD or FDP.

The SPD had a bad election in 2017 and didn't want to go into Coalition the last time but the post-election arithmetic left a CDU/SPD government as the only viable possibility. If their refusal led to political instability and a new election, they could have been on a hiding to nothing from an electorate that values stability above everything else. Memories of the chaotic Weimar Republik and what followed it still have a strong pull on the German psyche.

More than any other party, the CDU is a coalition of semi-autonomous regional organisations where local bosses lead state administrations that have more influence on everyday life than the Federal government. This is particularly true of the big Western states like Bavaria (which even has its own CSU party that's separate to the CDU), Baden-Württemberg and Nordrhein-Westfalen. The Federal leader has to lead by example as much as by the authority of the position and, when he or she is coming to the end of the road, there's not a lot the leadership can do when the big beasts start jostling for position in the succession race.

Merkel backed Saarland premier Annegrit Kramp-Karrenbauer to succeed her but AKK threw in the towel when other state leaders didn't back her up in opposition to the CDU in Thüringen doing a deal with the AfD. Mutti then threw her weight behind Nordrhein-Westfalen premier Armin Laschet who is the CDU/CSU candidate for Chancellor but the party has been drifting to the right since they lost support to the AfD in 2017 and centrists like Merkel and Laschet no longer have the same influence in the party. With their traditional media supporters Bild and Die Welt screaming them on, right-wingers like Viktor Orban's pal Friedrich Merz, long-time local NRW rival Norbert Röttgen and CSU leader Markus Söder have been sniping at Laschet's candidacy in the hope they might replace him before the election and he's streets behind The Greens' Annalena Baerbock in the opinion polls for next Chancellor.

At this stage, it appears Merkel has decided to leave them at it and she's concentrating her remaining political capital on banging heads together to get a federal rather than a regional response to the pandemic.

The CDU/CSU have been in government continuously for the last sixteen years and for thirty-two of the last thirty-nine. A lot of internal pressures have been held in check by Merkel's appeal to the centre-ground of the German political spectrum but, now that's she's on the last lap, the lid has come off and they're coming to the surface. And the German media bubble, which is every bit as atavistic as Britain's when it gets bored, is exciting itself with the first change of leadership in a generation.
 

Prof Honeydew

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Bad few months for the CDU/CSU since the March state elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz with the Greens leading them consistently in the opinion polls. However, they appeared to have turned a corner over the past three weeks, regaining their poll lead as the lockdown wound down and the Greens failed to break through a glass ceiling of around 25%.

Unfortunately, the Union's worries haven't ended there. Tomorrow, they're faced with another State contest. Unlike the two wealthy regions in the Southwest, Sachsen-Anhalt was part of the old DDR and suffered more than anywhere else from the deindustrialisation after the Fall of the Wall. And back in 2016, this is where the far-right AfD made its big breakthrough, grabbing more than 24% of the vote as the CDU fell back to under 30% for the first time since reunification. Latest state polls show the AfD recovering the support they lost after their local organisation split down the middle when their leader set up his own splinter party and there now appears to be an even-money chance that they could even force the CDU into second place.


If that happens, the CDU will be caught in a pincer movement, bleeding support on the left in the former West Germany to the Greens and on the Right in the former East to the AfD. It will leave them stuck between a rock and a hard place, unable to shore up one side of their support without alienating the other wing. And if they're seen to be playing second fiddle to the AfD in the East, they're leaving themselves open to losing further support on the non-populist right to the FDP who are now making an unlikely comeback.

Tomorrow's result could have a significant bearing on September's federal election and another shocker will lead to further calls for current CDU leader Armin Laschet to step aside in favour of Bavarian Premier Markus Söder. And the party locally may be left in a position where it cannot form an administration without the involvement of either the AfD or the post-Communist Die Linke, both of whom are treated as being beyond the pale by Germany's other political parties. Leaving the CDU with the choice of aligning with the hard left or far-right could rip apart the coalition of interests that has made them the natural party of government.

The outcome may also confirm the overall drift to the right with both the SPD and Die Linke (the former industrial areas of Sachsen-Anhalt around Halle-Bitterfeld-Leuna were a traditional stronghold) dropping support while the AfD and FDP are gaining.
 
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danger here

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One interesting thing that happened in recent days is the Greens shooting themselves in the foot, by coming out saying they are going to tax the hell out of petrol as soon as they get into government. Now everyone knows they will anyway, but please take a page out of Pat Rabbitte's election philosophy, tell people one thing, do the other after the fact. Germany's bread and butter economy relies on petrol, cars ect and it's just a silly move.

With the CDU, as I understand, Laschet is set in stone as CDU+CSU chancellor candidate, both parties agreed to that at their leadership convention. While Söder was the more popular choice, they are stuck with Laschet. One thing that might work in the CDU's favour in recent weeks, is Germany opening up again and vaccinations are among the fastest in Europe now. It's anticipated that everyone will be vaccinated by August / September time and maybe even faster than that.
 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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One interesting thing that happened in recent days is the Greens shooting themselves in the foot, by coming out saying they are going to tax the hell out of petrol as soon as they get into government. Now everyone knows they will anyway, but please take a page out of Pat Rabbitte's election philosophy, tell people one thing, do the other after the fact. Germany's bread and butter economy relies on petrol, cars ect and it's just a silly move.

With the CDU, as I understand, Laschet is set in stone as CDU+CSU chancellor candidate, both parties agreed to that at their leadership convention. While Söder was the more popular choice, they are stuck with Laschet. One thing that might work in the CDU's favour in recent weeks, is Germany opening up again and vaccinations are among the fastest in Europe now. It's anticipated that everyone will be vaccinated by August / September time and maybe even faster than that.
I'm not sure whether you meant that literally or ironically, but it's hilarious to see this being recommended for a left party on this site of all places, whereas when Rabbitte said it he was the devil incarnate.
 

hollandia

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I'm not sure whether you meant that literally or ironically, but it's hilarious to see this being recommended for a left party on this site of all places, whereas when Rabbitte said it he was the devil incarnate.
To be fair, Rabbitte's problem was that a) he said it out loud and
B) he confirmed in the minds of many that he was only interested in power

We expect politicians to lie, but on two conditions (they should be competent liars eg not Enda Kenny, and they should never say "yeah, but we were lying about that" like Rabbitte.)
 

Olli Rehn

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Vote for "Die Linke" actually collapsed. It went down by 5% in number only- but if you compare it to their last result from 2016, they lost about 25% of their entire votes! Just like in 2016 where they also lost a huge percentage of their voters.
SPD continues their descend into oblivion. The Greens did not materialize any strong gains. I cannot see them as the biggest party in the national election in September. They are hugely overrated.
 
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midlander12

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To be fair, Rabbitte's problem was that a) he said it out loud and
B) he confirmed in the minds of many that he was only interested in power

We expect politicians to lie, but on two conditions (they should be competent liars eg not Enda Kenny, and they should never say "yeah, but we were lying about that" like Rabbitte.)
Personally I prefer incompetent liars to competent ones - they are somewhat easier to spot.

What we are talking about here is ridiculous election promises, one of the few things on politics that actually get my goat (I actually don't get over-exercised about anything else as my expectations of politicians are pretty low generally). An example would of course be FG and universal health insurance, which they hadn't a notion of implementing, and heaven knows what SF will pull out of the hat for the next 'showtime' (they're making a good start with their ridiculous meanderings on property tax).
 

midlander12

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Vote for "Die Linke" actually collapsed. It went down by 5% in number only- but if you compare it to their last result from 2016, they lost about 25% of their entire votes! Just like in 2016 where they also lost a huge percentage of their voters.
SPD continues their descend into oblivion. The Greens did not materialize any strong gains. I cannot see them as the biggest party in the national election in September. They are hugely overrated.
In fairness the Greens are not very strong in Saxony-Anhalt and I don't think it's a very typical state.
 

Olli Rehn

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In fairness the Greens are not very strong in Saxony-Anhalt and I don't think it's a very typical state.
The Greens did not gain as predicted. The predictions were for a doubling of votes.
Surely SA is not the typical state- but it shows how hugely overrated the Greens are. There is a lot of unhealthy hype about them.
 

ainm_eile^2

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The Greens did not gain as predicted. The predictions were for a doubling of votes.
Surely SA is not the typical state- but it shows how hugely overrated the Greens are. There is a lot of unhealthy hype about them.
If the Greens get over 15% in this year's Federal Elections they'd be happy IMHO.
 
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Olli Rehn

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If the Greens get over 15% in this year's Federal Elections they'd be happy IMHO.
Exactly. The predictions about them have been many times wrong in the past. Always overrated. There should be a green governing mayor in Berlin now- but that did happen either.
They will get a rude awakening in September.
 

danger here

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One general point to make is not to get too carried away with using state elections as a barometer of how the federal elections will go. The political setups within the same party are wildly different in some cases at state and federal level. It's best to view them as two totally seperate entities using the same flag of convenience. See the car crash Rot Rot Grün coalition in Berlin as one example, three totally useless partners, think IMF-era Greens, yet at federal level, whatever about their politics, the SPD and Greens would be held in relatively high esteem, even if the %s don't show it. In other words, somewhere like Stendal or Dessau that might vote CDU at state level may have more of of a leaning towards the Linke / SPD at federal elections. Simple example, my wife despises the policies of the Greens in Berlin, would never consider to vote for them, yet would likely vote for them at federal level, as that side of the party is more sensible and grown up. You will find similar with Linke, FDP and the two large parties to an extent as well.

I don't particularly like them, but the Greens were on course to auto-win in September before Baerbock put her foot in it last week. A new scandal broke yesterday once again about Spahn and mask contracts, the CDU would do very well to turn things around fully. Personally I'm expecting a CDU-Green-FDP Jamaika coalition in September.
 
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danger here

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Exactly. The predictions about them have been many times wrong in the past. Always overrated. There should be a green governing mayor in Berlin now- but that did happen either.
They will get a rude awakening in September.
15% would put them as the second largest party most likely as the SPD are the mudguard of this government and the last of their core voter base is starting to die off. The Baerbock effect on the Greens should not be underestimated, she is being groomed as a new Merkel, and not only by the Greens. I think you are somewhat not seeing the numerous scandals that the CDU are being dragged into on a weekly basis, it would make Fianna Fail blush.
 

Olli Rehn

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15% would put them as the second largest party most likely as the SPD are the mudguard of this government and the last of their core voter base is starting to die off. The Baerbock effect on the Greens should not be underestimated, she is being groomed as a new Merkel, and not only by the Greens. I think you are somewhat not seeing the numerous scandals that the CDU are being dragged into on a weekly basis, it would make Fianna Fail blush.
Baerbock made already too many mistakes with her CV. Friedrich Merz rightly said yesterday evening "Der Baerbock Zug ist entgleist". Same situation as some years ago with Schulz. The Greens have been badly hyped up. There is a whole generation of journalists in TV and newspapers who grew up with them- and are part of them.
Baerbock is no second Merkel either. Green politics are in the spotlight now- and folks realize one thing: Someone has to pay for their ideas. The well off have the cash- but the large middle and lower class don't have the money. Other things are coming up as well- Habeck's suggestion about delivering arms to Ukraine made a lot of alarm bells ringing. Too much dreaming and not enough experience comes to the surface.
The CDU had always their scandals- but in the end they always bounced back.
Yes- there will be probably a CDU-FDP-Greens coalition in place by the autumn. I cannot see any other coalition.
 

midlander12

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One general point to make is not to get too carried away with using state elections as a barometer of how the federal elections will go. The political setups within the same party are wildly different in some cases at state and federal level. It's best to view them as two totally seperate entities using the same flag of convenience. See the car crash Rot Rot Grün coalition in Berlin as one example, three totally useless partners, think IMF-era Greens, yet at federal level, whatever about their politics, the SPD and Greens would be held in relatively high esteem, even if the %s don't show it. In other words, somewhere like Stendal or Dessau that might vote CDU at state level may have more of of a leaning towards the Linke / SPD at federal elections. Simple example, my wife despises the policies of the Greens in Berlin, would never consider to vote for them, yet would likely vote for them at federal level, as that side of the party is more sensible and grown up. You will find similar with Linke, FDP and the two large parties to an extent as well.

I don't particularly like them, but the Greens were on course to auto-win in September before Baerbock put her foot in it last week. A new scandal broke yesterday once again about Spahn and mask contracts, the CDU would do very well to turn things around fully. Personally I'm expecting a CDU-Green-FDP Jamaika coalition in September.
Of course, that's what was supposed to happen last time too, wasn't it?

The most striking thing about recent German politics is how fragmented it's become - even the CDU/CSU barely on 30% these days, and the other way behind unless the Greens recover again. Unless the left were to unite in some way, it's impossible to see any govt being formed now that doesn't have the (albeit reduced) CDU at its core.
 

Prof Honeydew

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The Greens did not gain as predicted. The predictions were for a doubling of votes.
Surely SA is not the typical state- but it shows how hugely overrated the Greens are. There is a lot of unhealthy hype about them.
Other than a few places attracting the upwardly mobile like Dresden, Weimar and Leipzig as well as those like Potsdam and Brandenburg taking the overspill from Berlin, the Greens have yet to make a significant impact in the former DDR. Concern about environmentalism and other causes of First World angst is a generation behind the level in the Western states, particularly where the population is significantly older than the German average.

Sachsen-Anhalt was a good result for the CDU and, in particular, for Laschet. The slide which has dogged him since he took over the leadership appears to have stopped for the moment and, because the threat from the right didn't materialise as expected, the Union can concentrate on a less schizophrenic strategy on a federal level instead of preaching one message in the West and an entirely different one in the East. As a result, they should be able to face into the final three months of the campaign with renewed confidence and better sense of the message they want to get across.

But Sunday was also influenced heavily by the realisation that the unthinkable could happen and many voters would appear to have switched their support to the CDU just to make sure the AfD didn't emerge as the biggest party in the state. The CDU may have increased their share by 7% but most, if not all, of that may have been lent by those more sympathetic to the FDP and the Greens, who didn't increase by as much as expected, as well as from the SPD whose support continues to slump. Those conditions won't be present on a federal level in September.

Biggest losers were on the left. The combined vote of Die Linke and the SPD is at its lowest ever since reunification. If they can't hold on in a state like Sachsen-Anhalt, they really are facing existential problems as the socialist message of protest gets drowned out by environmentalism in the West and right-wing populism in the East.
 
B

Blokesbloke

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Anti-BDS and soft on China and Russia. Worth noting he is a practising Catholic and opposed to same sex marriage. Interesting in contrasting in Germany that this is considered a normal stance to take and doesn't attract the opprobrium and hysteria it would here.
I was reading an article the other day about same-sex marriage in Germany and was interested to see Mrs Merkel opposed it but eventually allowed a "conscience" vote in the Bundestag and personally voted against it.

It didn't say what her objection was so I don't know if it was based on religion or not.

I remain ambivalent about it.
 

danger here

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I was reading an article the other day about same-sex marriage in Germany and was interested to see Mrs Merkel opposed it but eventually allowed a "conscience" vote in the Bundestag and personally voted against it.

It didn't say what her objection was so I don't know if it was based on religion or not.

I remain ambivalent about it.
She just didn't want you to be too happy and gay BB ;)
 

Clanrickard

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I was reading an article the other day about same-sex marriage in Germany and was interested to see Mrs Merkel opposed it but eventually allowed a "conscience" vote in the Bundestag and personally voted against it.

It didn't say what her objection was so I don't know if it was based on religion or not.

I remain ambivalent about it.
She holds strong Christian beliefs. Don't forgot her father was a pastor.
 

midlander12

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Only a month to go and what's happening?

Unbelievably the CDU/CSU have slipped further down to 22-23% and even more unbelievably, the SPD rather than the Greens are running them close in second place. The Greens are back in third on 17-19% and the AfD, FDP and Die Linke are all pretty much where they were. Anyone keeping an eye on the campaign, or has it even started?

 

midlander12

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Haven't been following this at all. Would I be right in thinking that a coalition is needed between two of the three?
Yes at a minimum. Of course the CDU/CSU and SPD have been in coalition for years and have both bled out (like FF and FG) during that time. Up to now it was assumed that the next coalition would be led by the CDU or (less likely) the Greens, but now it looks as though there may be a possibility of SPD and Greens (and FDP?) pushing the CDU/CSU out of power altogether.
 

hollandia

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Yes at a minimum. Of course the CDU/CSU and SPD have been in coalition for years and have both bled out (like FF and FG) during that time. Up to now it was assumed that the next coalition would be led by the CDU or (less likely) the Greens, but now it looks as though there may be a possibility of SPD and Greens (and FDP?) pushing the CDU/CSU out of power altogether.
A changing of the guard every so often does no harm.
 

midlander12

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A changing of the guard every so often does no harm.
Absolutely - not much of a change anyway. The SPD have been in power forever, the FDP most recently less than a decade ago (coalition with Merkel), and the Greens for two terms with the SPD up to 2005.
 

hollandia

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Behind a paywall unfortunately but I read on on my phone earlier. Grim to be looking at changing leaders a month before an election. Apparently the SPD candidate has proven an unexpected star on the campaign trail. Just goes to show campaigns matter.

Laschet was, as far as I can recall, a technocrat with little or no charisma, and his candidature was something of a surprise.
 

danger here

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Absolutely - not much of a change anyway. The SPD have been in power forever, the FDP most recently less than a decade ago (coalition with Merkel), and the Greens for two terms with the SPD up to 2005.
I'd disagree with this as a émigré German, the SPD haven't really been in power since 2005, they have been 3 of the last 4 of Merkel's coalitions, where they have been a mudguard. Zero dignity left, and like the CDU, their voter base is literally dying out each election. You wouldn't consider the Irish Greens to have been in power for some of the 21st century, rather they propped up the status quo. The SPD have been enabling the CDU to continue CDUing, which wearing a red gimp mask, that's about it.

Even before the, in the Schröder led SPD - Green government, they brought in some very neo liberal employment policies, such as the super low Hartz IV reform. Nearly 20 years later, their political capital is zero with most of the electorate. I actually gave them a postal vote yesterday in local elections, as I see them as the best of a bad lot. I'm expecting an CDU - SPD - Green coalition. The SPD and Greens won't go near the FDP with a barge pole, Lindner is toxic. It may even be CDU - SPD on the day. German voters are notorious for playing it safe, and the CDU play well off that. The Greens don't have any support outside of the larger cities and universities, the average person over 45 still chooses one of CDU or SPD usually, based on who their family voted for, just like at home.
 
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midlander12

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I'd disagree with this as a émigré German, the SPD haven't really been in power since 2005, they have been 3 of the last 4 of Merkel's coalitions, where they have been a mudguard. Zero dignity left, and like the CDU, their voter base is literally dying out each election. You wouldn't consider the Irish Greens to have been in power for some of the 21st century, rather they propped up the status quo. The SPD have been enabling the CDU to continue CDUing, which wearing a red gimp mask, that's about it.

Even before the, in the Schröder led SPD - Green government, they brought in some very neo liberal employment policies, such as the super low Hartz IV reform. Nearly 20 years later, their political capital is zero with most of the electorate. I actually gave them a postal vote yesterday in local elections, as I see them as the best of a bad lot. I'm expecting an CDU - SPD - Green coalition. The SPD and Greens won't go near the FDP with a barge pole, Lindner is toxic. It may even be CDU - SPD on the day. German voters are notorious for playing it safe, and the CDU play well off that. The Greens don't have any support outside of the larger cities and universities, the average person over 45 still chooses one of CDU or SPD usually, based on who their family voted for, just like at home.
Well I suppose I meant 'in office' really - is anyone ever 'in power' these days? I was responding to a point about a 'changing of the guard' (or not in this case).

You make German politics sound even more boring than its Irish equivalent!
 

danger here

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Well I suppose I meant 'in office' really - is anyone ever 'in power' these days? I was responding to a point about a 'changing of the guard' (or not in this case).

You make German politics sound even more boring than its Irish equivalent!
Oh it really is :ROFLMAO: The main three parties have to agree on an awful lot by default, as Germany has the very extensive social market economy, combined with an obsession with regulation and bureaucracy. So you have peculiar situations, where the pro big business CDU will be often be defending the welfare state, the SPD might be in favour of loosening some regulations on Sundays shopping and the Greens (leadership at least) would be in favour of sending troops to Afghanistan or elsewhere.

Their political differences tend to be more how to deal with the same problem from very slightly different perspectives, within the straightjacket of the socal market economy and society.

It may be boring and mundane, but boring is good in times like these, just ask the Brits
 
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danger here

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Behind a paywall unfortunately but I read on on my phone earlier. Grim to be looking at changing leaders a month before an election. Apparently the SPD candidate has proven an unexpected star on the campaign trail. Just goes to show campaigns matter.

Olaf Scholz, the SPD candidate, appears to me to be fairly reasonable. I think he comes from a banking / finance background but doesn't try and hide it, seems articulate and certainly Laschet is doing him a few favours by continuing to embarrass himself in front of the cameras, the latest being in front of Elon Musk. Baerbock from the Greens is very articulate but her party will limit her success IMO, she's probably perfect in the SPD.


 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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Oh it really is :ROFLMAO: The main three parties have to agree on an awful lot by default, as Germany has the very extensive social market economy, combined with an obsession with regulation and bureaucracy. So you have peculiar situations, where the pro big business CDU will be often be defending the welfare state, the SPD might be in favour of loosening some regulations on Sundays shopping and the Greens (leadership at least) would be in favour of sending troops to Afghanistan or elsewhere.

Their political differences tend to be more how to deal with the same problem from very slightly different perspectives, within the straightjacket of the socal market economy and society.

It may be boring and mundane, but boring is good in times like these, just ask the Brits
Yes boring is usually better in politics, if accompanied by a willingness to actually tackle issues and avoid the sort of vacuous virtue-signalling and glad-handing which are a feature of Irish politics.
 
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