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German Federal And State Elections 2021.

hollandia

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midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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Time for an update on what is after all the world's most important election this year, unless of course our lot fall a victim before Christmas (!!!).

The SPD, thanks to overwhelming popularity of current Finance Minister Olof Scholz (he is over 50% is some Chancellor polls), have retained their lead with a week to go. On average, the most recent polls are SPD 26%, CDU/CSU a dire 20-21%, Greens 16%, FDP and the far-right AFD 11% each and The Left/DIe Linke 6%. This would be a 12-13% drop for the CDU/CSU on their already awful 2017 performance, despite Merkel's personal intervention to try and save the day. It would in fact be almost as bad as FF's wipeout here in 2011.

Incidentally, the CDU's Bavarian sister party the CSU is also down 8-9%, though mostly benefitting the Greens.

In terms of preferred coalitions, none of the options are hugely popular, but various combinations involving the SPD and the Greens are on 33% while none of the options involving the CDU/CSU get into double figures.


In terms of seats, I freely admit I do not understand the German electoral system which apparently produces a different total of seats every time, but the latest projections are for the SPD to win 180-200 directly elected seats. compared to 59 in 2017 and 153 overall. As I understand, this would reduce their number of second-placed seats, but presumably they would still be gaining up to 100 seats overall. The CDU/CSU are projected to win barely 100 direct seats though apparently they are likely to take another 100 or so from second place, and the Greens likely to have at least 60-70 between firsts and seconds.

It's hard to see anything now but an SPD/Green coalition, probably needing the FDP or Die Linke to make it to an overall majority. The CDU/CSU are not going to be going back into govt if they get wiped like this.

 

Olli Rehn

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Nov 27, 2018
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About 30% of the electorate has not made a decision yet. The race is wide open.
I cannot see the SPD becoming the biggest party. It will be again the CDU/CSU which comes out on top.
The opinion polls are as wrong as with Brexit or Trump!
 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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About 30% of the electorate has not made a decision yet. The race is wide open.
I cannot see the SPD becoming the biggest party. It will be again the CDU/CSU which comes out on top.
The opinion polls are as wrong as with Brexit or Trump!
We shall see but my understanding is that German opinion polls are generally very accurate. Of course there may well be a swing back to 'nurse for fear of worse' in the last week.
 

soccop

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Nov 28, 2018
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Time for an update on what is after all the world's most important election this year, unless of course our lot fall a victim before Christmas (!!!).

The SPD, thanks to overwhelming popularity of current Finance Minister Olof Scholz (he is over 50% is some Chancellor polls), have retained their lead with a week to go. On average, the most recent polls are SPD 26%, CDU/CSU a dire 20-21%, Greens 16%, FDP and the far-right AFD 11% each and The Left/DIe Linke 6%. This would be a 12-13% drop for the CDU/CSU on their already awful 2017 performance, despite Merkel's personal intervention to try and save the day. It would in fact be almost as bad as FF's wipeout here in 2011.

Incidentally, the CDU's Bavarian sister party the CSU is also down 8-9%, though mostly benefitting the Greens.

In terms of preferred coalitions, none of the options are hugely popular, but various combinations involving the SPD and the Greens are on 33% while none of the options involving the CDU/CSU get into double figures.


In terms of seats, I freely admit I do not understand the German electoral system which apparently produces a different total of seats every time, but the latest projections are for the SPD to win 180-200 directly elected seats. compared to 59 in 2017 and 153 overall. As I understand, this would reduce their number of second-placed seats, but presumably they would still be gaining up to 100 seats overall. The CDU/CSU are projected to win barely 100 direct seats though apparently they are likely to take another 100 or so from second place, and the Greens likely to have at least 60-70 between firsts and seconds.

It's hard to see anything now but an SPD/Green coalition, probably needing the FDP or Die Linke to make it to an overall majority. The CDU/CSU are not going to be going back into govt if they get wiped like this.

It’s all very complex. I wonder will the Social Democrats or the Christian Democrats win in the end.
 

ast

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Dec 15, 2018
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Boogieland
If I understand your link correctly, there was a move back to the SPD in the final week in 2002 which was reflected in the last couple of polls, so I don't think that means they were inaccurate. This could happen this time too, albeit in reverse, as I said in my post.
Yes, you're right there, i did pick the wrong election because i forgot to include the CSU part in the C party. Apologies for that.

I do have a certain recollection of a large miss, and after checking it turns out to have been the 2005 election:

 
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midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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Yes, you're right there, i did pick the wrong election because i forget to include the CSU part in the C party. Apologies for that.

I do have a certain recollection of a large miss, and after checking it turns out to have been the 2005 election:


Fair enough, I had forgotten about that, though I remember Merkel performed very poorly in her first election as Chancellor candidate. From looking at the actual poll results, they seem to have got the other parties roughly right, so I can only assume they overestimated how many undecided voters would vote CDU/CSU. This is the Wikipedia explanation:-

All major opinion polling published in the week prior to the election indicated a clear victory for the CDU/CSU, with a result over 40%. The discrepancy between forecasts and the actual result led to criticism of the polling firms. The error was attributed to factors including the large number of undecided voters (up to 40% ahead of the election) and the increasing inaccuracy of traditional telephone-based survey methods.[8]


In fairness, they have been very accurate ever since, although they slightly overestimated the CDU last time.
 

ast

Member
Dec 15, 2018
230
126
Boogieland
Fair enough, I had forgotten about that, though I remember Merkel performed very poorly in her first election as Chancellor candidate. From looking at the actual poll results, they seem to have got the other parties roughly right, so I can only assume they overestimated how many undecided voters would vote CDU/CSU. This is the Wikipedia explanation:-

All major opinion polling published in the week prior to the election indicated a clear victory for the CDU/CSU, with a result over 40%. The discrepancy between forecasts and the actual result led to criticism of the polling firms. The error was attributed to factors including the large number of undecided voters (up to 40% ahead of the election) and the increasing inaccuracy of traditional telephone-based survey methods.[8]


In fairness, they have been very accurate ever since, although they slightly overestimated the CDU last time.
My informal and by no means comprehensive insight...

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen which does exit polls and partial count prognosis for the second German television is a not for profit institute and Infratest dimap which does that for the other public German channels also used to be an institute, but i see thats no longer the case. And indeed the quality of all of their recent work on election evenings has forced the other pollsters to up their output to some extent.

As mentioned i do only pay sporadic attention to German polling and even less so recently, but nonetheless the empirical impression doesn't equate to a general attribute of accuracy, even if most of the time there seems to be less fluctuation than for Irish polling. My best call would be "it depends" and i don't have enough confidence in the little i know to spell out these dependencies publicly beyond the above.
 
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danger here

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Feb 17, 2019
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I'm not sure if I'm the only Kraut-based member here, but my own perspective is that as always with German elections, its not about who wins as such, rather which parties are going to sit down with each other. Regardless of the numbers.

Like Olli above, I would say don't underestimate the shy CDU voter, most of the perceived CDU backlash is against Lacschet, rather than the party itself. Like them or loathe them, the CDU is the Fianna Fail 1.0 of Germany, every SME owner and large corporation suit and tie bigwig wouldn't be able to look themselves in the mirror if they did not vote CDU on the list, even if they don't fancy Laschet .

The most likely outcome is an awkward albeit stable SPD - CDU - Green coalition. A bit like Ireland, German politics is built on an overdose of consensus. It's boring as hell but it's a bland functional democracy rather than Gestapo or Stasi..
 

MOTS

Member
Dec 24, 2019
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I'm not sure if I'm the only Kraut-based member here, but my own perspective is that as always with German elections, its not about who wins as such, rather which parties are going to sit down with each other. Regardless of the numbers.

Like Olli above, I would say don't underestimate the shy CDU voter, most of the perceived CDU backlash is against Lacschet, rather than the party itself. Like them or loathe them, the CDU is the Fianna Fail 1.0 of Germany, every SME owner and large corporation suit and tie bigwig wouldn't be able to look themselves in the mirror if they did not vote CDU on the list, even if they don't fancy Laschet .

The most likely outcome is an awkward albeit stable SPD - CDU - Green coalition. A bit like Ireland, German politics is built on an overdose of consensus. It's boring as hell but it's a bland functional democracy rather than Gestapo or Stasi..

" It's boring as hell but it's a bland functional democracy rather than Gestapo or Stasi.."

Indeed - and much more democratic than the revolving 1-party minority dictatorships - as in Britain, for example, whereby 1-party can control a majority in the British Parliament in spite of being rejected by over 50% of the electorate.

The current British Government has an 80-seat majority - in spite of the fact that 56% of the electorate voted against them.
 
Nov 27, 2018
4,975
6,744
I'm not sure if I'm the only Kraut-based member here, but my own perspective is that as always with German elections, its not about who wins as such, rather which parties are going to sit down with each other. Regardless of the numbers.

Like Olli above, I would say don't underestimate the shy CDU voter, most of the perceived CDU backlash is against Lacschet, rather than the party itself. Like them or loathe them, the CDU is the Fianna Fail 1.0 of Germany, every SME owner and large corporation suit and tie bigwig wouldn't be able to look themselves in the mirror if they did not vote CDU on the list, even if they don't fancy Laschet .

The most likely outcome is an awkward albeit stable SPD - CDU - Green coalition. A bit like Ireland, German politics is built on an overdose of consensus. It's boring as hell but it's a bland functional democracy rather than Gestapo or Stasi..
Politics being boring is always a good sign, even if it means there’s less entertainment for sites like this. The latter stage of Bertie’s reign wasn’t boring.

With regards to politics, the Chinese saying, “may you live in interesting times” is very much a curse, not a blessing.

I’m living in a country that’s having a very interesting time politically, I wouldn’t recommend it.
 

soccop

Pavlov rings my bell.
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midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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As many predicted, the SDU/CSU are staging something of a last-minute comeback, now averaging 22-23% in the latest polls, with the SPD still on 25-26%, the Greens back on 15-16%, the FDP and AFD both still on 10-11% and Die Linke 6%. Nonetheless even with this late revival, it cannot be overstated how disastrous these figures are for Merkel and the CDU, particularly given her increasingly personal role in campaign towards the end. For comparison, their 33% in 2017 was seen as a historic low (and indeed was their lowest vote ever, even compared to their 1998 defeat).

 

Olli Rehn

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Nov 27, 2018
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I am still not buying that the SPD will be the biggest party.
35% of the voters are undecided- and that is a lot.
 
Nov 27, 2018
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As many predicted, the SDU/CSU are staging something of a last-minute comeback, now averaging 22-23% in the latest polls, with the SPD still on 25-26%, the Greens back on 15-16%, the FDP and AFD both still on 10-11% and Die Linke 6%. Nonetheless even with this late revival, it cannot be overstated how disastrous these figures are for Merkel and the CDU, particularly given her increasingly personal role in campaign towards the end. For comparison, their 33% in 2017 was seen as a historic low (and indeed was their lowest vote ever, even compared to their 1998 defeat).

The figures are definitely disastrous for the CDU, but I don't really understand why you say they're disastrous for Merkel. I wouldn't see it that way.

Merkel is gone, and by her own choice, not by circumstances. She was widely quoted about wanting to retire in 21016, and it was only Trump winning the US election that prompted her to remain. The falling CDU figures don't represent a loss of faith in Merkel, they represent a (very understandable) loss of faith in a CDU party and CDU-based government that is without Merkel.

Without Merkel, the CDU are much less attractive as the major party in government.

If Merkel was more self-centered, she might will be pleased with the CDU's falling figures, as they could be taken as a vindication of her performance, not a criticism of it.

German politics are odd, because, as many posters pointed out, they tend to be very boring and rely on a lot of "not very dramatic" consensus. But federal German politics, and especially the CDU, are only viable long-term with a strong, recognisable figurehead as chancellor. Merkel, Adenauer, Kohl all held the position for well over a decade. But I don't think that, apart from these "3 big names", the CDU have had a chancellor that has lasted a single full term. So, for a political system that has a strong bias towards being bring and undramatic, strong, recognisable individuals are extremely important.
 
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midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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The figures are definitely disastrous for the CDU, but I don't really understand why you say they're disastrous for Merkel. I wouldn't see it that way.

Merkel is gone, and by her own choice, not by circumstances. She was widely quoted about wanting to retire in 21016, and it was only Trump winning the US election that prompted her to remain. The falling CDU figures don't represent a loss of faith in Merkel, they represent a (very understandable) loss of faith in a CDU party and CDU-based government that is without Merkel.

Without Merkel, the CDU are much less attractive as the major party in government.

If Merkel was more self-centered, she might will be pleased with the CDU's falling figures, as they could be taken as a vindication of her performance, not a criticism of it.

German politics are odd, because, as many posters pointed out, they tend to be very boring and rely on a lot of "not very dramatic" consensus. But federal German politics, and especially the CDU, are only viable long-term with a strong, recognisable figurehead as chancellor. Merkel, Adenauer, Kohl all held the position for well over a decade. But I don't think that, apart from these "3 big names", the CDU have had a chancellor that has lasted a single full term. So, for a political system that has a strong bias towards being bring and undramatic, strong, recognisable individuals are extremely important.
The loss has begun at the time of the last election, when as you say she has originally intended to be gone. But she has stayed on as Chancellor to the bitter end, years after stepping down as CDU leader (indeed her successor has politically 'predeceased' her), and (something I didn't expect) she has played an active part in the campaign this time. It's like she doesn't know when to let go. You could argue she has helped the CDU stage something of a comeback, but even 25% would be historically a disastrous figure for them, and by extension for her, in my view.
 

Olli Rehn

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Nov 27, 2018
151
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Laschet folded up his ballot paper the wrong way- the vote is clearly visible:



The wife's ballot is on the right side.
Both voted CDU.
 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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Laschet folded up his ballot paper the wrong way- the vote is clearly visible:



The wife's ballot is on the right side.
Both voted CDU.
At least he managed to vote for his own party - given his gaffe-strewn record that almost surprises me.
 

Olli Rehn

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Nov 27, 2018
151
66
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Exit poll:
SPD and CDU both 25%
AfD 11%
Greens 15%
Linke 5%- it might be lower- and they will be out. Huge loses for them.
FDP 12%
 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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Obviously there was indeed a last-minute lurch back to the CDU/CSU. Still a terrible result for them. You'd have to wonder if they'd even want to go back into govt after that.

Coalition-wise it's either SPD/Green/FDP or CDU/Green/FDP. Die LInke are probably 'out' in terms of govt formation (if they were ever 'in') and possibly out of the Bundestag too.
 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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DW News has projected seats - CDU/CSU and SPD on about 200 each, Greens 117, AFD and FDP about 90 each and Left 40 assuming they don't miss the 5% threshold.

SPD must be a little disappointed to not be more in the lead. It really is a question of who the Greens and FDP plump for.

 
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Olli Rehn

Member
Nov 27, 2018
151
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CDU will probably get the most MPs due to the voting system.
Grand coalition still on the cards. Greens and FDP do not get on well with each other.
 

bang bang

Member
Dec 5, 2018
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Time for an update on what is after all the world's most important election this year, unless of course our lot fall a victim before Christmas (!!!).

The SPD, thanks to overwhelming popularity of current Finance Minister Olof Scholz (he is over 50% is some Chancellor polls), have retained their lead with a week to go. On average, the most recent polls are SPD 26%, CDU/CSU a dire 20-21%, Greens 16%, FDP and the far-right AFD 11% each and The Left/DIe Linke 6%. This would be a 12-13% drop for the CDU/CSU on their already awful 2017 performance, despite Merkel's personal intervention to try and save the day. It would in fact be almost as bad as FF's wipeout here in 2011.

Incidentally, the CDU's Bavarian sister party the CSU is also down 8-9%, though mostly benefitting the Greens.

In terms of preferred coalitions, none of the options are hugely popular, but various combinations involving the SPD and the Greens are on 33% while none of the options involving the CDU/CSU get into double figures.


In terms of seats, I freely admit I do not understand the German electoral system which apparently produces a different total of seats every time, but the latest projections are for the SPD to win 180-200 directly elected seats. compared to 59 in 2017 and 153 overall. As I understand, this would reduce their number of second-placed seats, but presumably they would still be gaining up to 100 seats overall. The CDU/CSU are projected to win barely 100 direct seats though apparently they are likely to take another 100 or so from second place, and the Greens likely to have at least 60-70 between firsts and seconds.

It's hard to see anything now but an SPD/Green coalition, probably needing the FDP or Die Linke to make it to an overall majority. The CDU/CSU are not going to be going back into govt if they get wiped like this.

Too close to call according to latest reports, should be an interesting time ahead.
 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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Some stats on youth vote - nearly half going to Greens or FDP.

SPD actually down on 2017, CDU down 13%, AFD and LInke down too.




Europe Elects

@EuropeElects


Germany, Forschunsgruppe Wahlen exit poll: Voters under the age of 30 GRÜNE-G/EFA: 22% (+11) FDP-RE: 20% (+7) SPD-S&D: 17% (-2) CDU/CSU-EPP: 11% (-13) AfD-ID: 8% (-3) LINKE-LEFT: 8% (-3) +/- vs. 2017 exit poll
 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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From DW News:-

Last updated at 1928 GMT/UTC
SPD keeps growing lead
As more votes are counted, the center-left SPD keeps growing its small lead over the center-right CDU/CSU from initial projections and exit polls. It now has a 1.2 percentage lead over the conservatives
CDU/CSU: 24.5%
SPD: 25.7%
AfD: 10.5%
FDP: 11.5%
Linke: 5.0%
Greens: 14.3%
Other parties: 8.5%
DW correspondent William Glucroft noted that nearly 1.4 million voters appeared to move from the center-right Christian Democrats to the SDP.
 

danger here

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Feb 17, 2019
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DW correspondent William Glucroft noted that nearly 1.4 million voters appeared to move from the center-right Christian Democrats to the SDP.
German commentators recently have been saying that the SPD's Olaf Scholz is the most natural replacement for Merkel, a steady hand, low on drama and excitement ect. Whearas the Laschet is that drunken uncle that turns up at Christmas. Great craic after a few drinks but not really what us Europeans need right now.
 

midlander12

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Dec 4, 2018
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German commentators recently have been saying that the SPD's Olaf Scholz is the most natural replacement for Merkel, a steady hand, low on drama and excitement ect. Whearas the Laschet is that drunken uncle that turns up at Christmas. Great craic after a few drinks but not really what us Europeans need right now.
He sounds more like an Irish politician (or a provincial English Tory backbencher) than a German minister. Scholz on the other hands looks like a 1980's politics lecturer. So I suppose it has to be Scholz.
 

danger here

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Feb 17, 2019
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He sounds more like an Irish politician (or a provincial English Tory backbencher) than a German minister. Scholz on the other hands looks like a 1980's politics lecturer. So I suppose it has to be Scholz.
Speaking of university lecturers, this is from six years ago now but the nickname Dicing Armin has stuck until this day :sneaky: Scholz also has his fair share of scandals, but well, seems more trustworthy, albeit on a very superficial level

 
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