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Irish General Election Thread ...

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
Yesterday I heard from someone in the know of these things that we could be looking at an election here end of THIS DECEMBER?

Anyone else heard similar?

EDIT - we now know & its on Feb 8th 2020 .. a Saturday
 
Last edited:

Marcos the black

Staff member
Moderator
Member
Dec 5, 2018
1,499
872
Knowhere.
Don't think so..It would suit FG if there was. If FF wanted to be clever about it they should wait until mid Jan... When everyone is depressed, hospital queues are at all time highs and summer and a long way away...
 

ainm_eile

Member
Nov 28, 2018
413
244
FF feeling pressure from SF after the by-election?

FG are trying the same approach in 2016 of hoping that people would ignore anything so long as GDP is growing. Didn't work in 2016, why so should it now? Irish economy is running out of spare capacity, so more GDP growth is going to exacerbate problems with prices going up.

FG's whole strategy was that a growing economy would deliver votes is not going to work now.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
Yesterday I heard from someone in the know of these things that we could be looking at an election here end of THIS DECEMBER?

Anyone else heard similar?
Not a chance. They would be lynched going around canvassing in Christmas week. In fact, I don't think there is actually sufficient time to call an election now before Christmas. It depends when FF decide to pull the plug - could happen in Jan, with an election in Feb.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Not a chance. They would be lynched going around canvassing in Christmas week. In fact, I don't think there is actually sufficient time to call an election now before Christmas. It depends when FF decide to pull the plug - could happen in Jan, with an election in Feb.
FF may not be able to pull the plug on a whim. SF are key, and FF need to have them on board with a VONC. SF could take the view that FF had ample time to bring down the government, so they should own their problems.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
FF may not be able to pull the plug on a whim. SF are key, and FF need to have them on board with a VONC. SF could take the view that FF had ample time to bring down the government, so they should own their problems.
What - you think SF won't back a VONC? I think that's a most unlikely scenario. Anyway I don't think it'll happen like that. FF will find an excuse to formally pull out of the C&S pact and Leo V has no option but to head to the Park.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
What - you think SF won't back a VONC? I think that's a most unlikely scenario. Anyway I don't think it'll happen like that. FF will find an excuse to formally pull out of the C&S pact and Leo V has no option but to head to the Park.
I don't think they'll back one just to suit FF. Rather they'll call one of their own to put pressure on FF to shit or get off the pot.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
I don't think they'll back one just to suit FF. Rather they'll call one of their own to put pressure on FF to shit or get off the pot.
Well, whatever. It's a bit theoretical - either FF decide to get off the pot or they don't, it's their choice, just like whether the election is in Feb, March or May. Either way, FG have only got a stay of execution, and FF are their executioners.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Well, whatever. It's a bit theoretical - either FF decide to get off the pot or they don't, it's their choice, just like whether the election is in Feb, March or May. Either way, FG have only got a stay of execution, and FF are their executioners.
The point is, it isn't their choice. At least not solely.
 

Marcos the black

Staff member
Moderator
Member
Dec 5, 2018
1,499
872
Knowhere.
FG would be crazy to call a winter election... Let it run to spring.. people always feel happier then..
 

Shaadi

Member
Feb 16, 2019
2,594
2,890
There isn't really enough time left in 2019 for a 3 week GE campaign. If an election were called in the morning a 3 week campaign would mean that a GE would be held on the weekend of the 28th, 29th or on the following Monday the 30th with the 31st being New Year's Eve. The hours are ticking away on the possibility.
 

Seosamh

Member
Nov 29, 2018
10,422
7,164
Trim's not that bad, even has a river (sort of), and a castle. And Carrick's little more than a tacky stag-and-hen joint these days.
Nothing changes much, I touched(as we said then) for a girl there, back in the '70's everything was going great until her boyfriend showed up...I was getting the better of him until his mates appeared, then mine did too, resulting in, if you'll excuse the expression, a mexican standoff...discretion being the better part of valour we departed the next morning..shame though, she was a cracker... :)
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
Nothing changes much, I touched(as we said then) for a girl there, back in the '70's everything was going great until her boyfriend showed up...I was getting the better of him until his mates appeared, then mine did too, resulting in, if you'll excuse the expression, a mexican standoff...discretion being the better part of valour we departed the next morning..shame though, she was a cracker... :)
'Touched' - that's a new one on me!
 

Round tower

Member
Feb 16, 2019
2,579
960
FF feeling pressure from SF after the by-election?

FG are trying the same approach in 2016 of hoping that people would ignore anything so long as GDP is growing. Didn't work in 2016, why so should it now? Irish economy is running out of spare capacity, so more GDP growth is going to exacerbate problems with prices going up.

FG's whole strategy was that a growing economy would deliver votes is not going to work now.
FG made aa big mistake in 016 not calling a GE in Oct./Nov, if they did they would have an extra 20 to 25 seats xxtra
 

ruserious

Member
Dec 4, 2018
5,314
5,152

curio

Member
Feb 26, 2019
4,007
3,666

Election next year for certain.
It may come earlier if Martin can't hold off a leadership challenge from John McGuinness. J McG is slittery, he tiptoed his way around the fallout of the banking bust and IMF bailout and voted against the repeal ref being held. FG don't have the same problem as even if Leo becomes toxic Simon would garner an even greater broad support after his excellent Brexit handling.

A FF spill would only play into FG hands but FF attacking the government it propped up for a whole term will have built huge internal frustrations in FF that may finally come to a head. There's just way too many contradictions to defend and I reckon SF may actually see a rebound in their fortunes once Bojos deal is passed and we have a defacto Irish sea border, a half realisation of SF central policy.
 

Derryman

Member
Feb 17, 2019
6,300
7,141
Derry
It may come earlier if Martin can't hold off a leadership challenge from John McGuinness. J McG is slittery, he tiptoed his way around the fallout of the banking bust and IMF bailout and voted against the repeal ref being held. FG don't have the same problem as even if Leo becomes toxic Simon would garner an even greater broad support after his excellent Brexit handling.

A FF spill would only play into FG hands but FF attacking the government it propped up for a whole term will have built huge internal frustrations in FF that may finally come to a head. There's just way too many contradictions to defend and I reckon SF may actually see a rebound in their fortunes once Bojos deal is passed and we have a defacto Irish sea border, a half realisation of SF central policy.
In regards to SF fortune, I find myself wondering about this also. If Boris see his deal to fruition , it is going to be very hard to ignore SF as their central policy becomes the everyday topic of political discussion for more and more people.


At least that's what I hope.
Although to be honest I don't mind who leads the path to a UI, but it would be nice to see a united front in this regard.
 

curio

Member
Feb 26, 2019
4,007
3,666
In regards to SF fortune, I find myself wondering about this also. If Boris see his deal to fruition , it is going to be very hard to ignore SF as their central policy becomes the everyday topic of political discussion for more and more people.


At least that's what I hope.
Although to be honest I don't mind who leads the path to a UI, but it would be nice to see a united front in this regard.
The most vulnerable main party is without doubt FF. SF can only gain from FF bluster if they start talking like they're the natural party of power like they used to be. Ireland has changed since FF could last boast that and when half their sitting TDs voted against the Repeal Ref happening they're very much tied to an older and rural vote base.

The next election could see SF take their place in urban areas if Mary Lou can punch hard on healthcare and housing and FF won't be able to fight back having been backseat passengers for the last five years. In a post border Ireland FF will have to look to the SDLP for a way back.
 

Derryman

Member
Feb 17, 2019
6,300
7,141
Derry
The most vulnerable main party is without doubt FF. SF can only gain from FF bluster if they start talking like they're the natural party of power like they used to be. Ireland has changed since FF could last boast that and when half their sitting TDs voted against the Repeal Ref happening they're very much tied to an older and rural vote base.

The next election could see SF take their place in urban areas if Mary Lou can punch hard on healthcare and housing and FF won't be able to fight back having been backseat passengers for the last five years. In a post border Ireland FF will have to look to the SDLP for a way back.
I don't think Mary Lou is the person to lead us here, and I can't think of any other SF TD that could. At this minute in time I feel SF are being poorly led , they should be doing better than they are.
Chris Hazzard , Connor Murphy and John o dowd seem more able to me. John Finucane would not be an easy target for the southern media to corner in the apology demands.
 

curio

Member
Feb 26, 2019
4,007
3,666
Mary Lou was always weak, but just remember Francis Fitzgerald was a SF scalp before FF was goaded into claiming it.

I'm willing to be surprised. In the next election FF have to sail against the wind that can only fill SF sails.
 

Shaadi

Member
Feb 16, 2019
2,594
2,890
It may come earlier if Martin can't hold off a leadership challenge from John McGuinness. J McG is slittery, he tiptoed his way around the fallout of the banking bust and IMF bailout and voted against the repeal ref being held. FG don't have the same problem as even if Leo becomes toxic Simon would garner an even greater broad support after his excellent Brexit handling.

A FF spill would only play into FG hands but FF attacking the government it propped up for a whole term will have built huge internal frustrations in FF that may finally come to a head. There's just way too many contradictions to defend and I reckon SF may actually see a rebound in their fortunes once Bojos deal is passed and we have a defacto Irish sea border, a half realisation of SF central policy.
What we are on course for is a March or April Election, the FFers can easily keep themselves in check until then.

Micky Martin is on course to be the next Taoiseach ( with the Healey-Rae ex FFer Inds in tow) with FG propping them up this time.

IMO it would be impossible for Varadkar to lead FG to a worse GE result than Enda Kenny did in 2016. FG should gain a few percent as Varadkar is a more appealing Statesman type leader than Kennny was, which will play well with the Urban Middle-class who rejected Enda the redneck.

FG face serious competition from The Green Party in Dublin who will do well at FGs last seat expense.

SFs position is tricky. It is not about Brexit, they are suffering from the results of the constituency infighting that has split the organisation in a lot of weak constituencies. Also the suspension of Stormont weakens their ability to sell themselves as competent parliamentarians.

Stormont is very likely on the way back because the momentum is pushing things that way. That will help SF a small bit.

There's a possible 16% GE result there for SF as the Left wing Micro parties seem to be on course to lose their Water Protest vote this time. Unfortunately for SF they themselves are in some form of disarray or too weak in the first place in more than a dozen constituencies. This should force their vote share back towards 11-12%.

Mary-Lou needs to work some magic in the media and constituencies to grab as high a vote share as possible for SF. They can afford to not win new seats and to even lose a few seats, but keeping the headline percentage figure as high as in 2016 is quite important if they are to continue to be seen as the coming force in ROI politics.

Labour aren't as fkd as people think, but outside of their old strongholds they will still be an irrelevance.

The Strong Inds will once again do very well while the weak Inds will melt away this time.

FF 28%, FG 27%, SF 13%, Greens 7%, Labour 6%, Inds and Micro 19%.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
What we are on course for is a March or April Election, the FFers can easily keep themselves in check until then.

Micky Martin is on course to be the next Taoiseach ( with the Healey-Rae ex FFer Inds in tow) with FG propping them up this time.

IMO it would be impossible for Varadkar to lead FG to a worse GE result than Enda Kenny did in 2016. FG should gain a few percent as Varadkar is a more appealing Statesman type leader than Kennny was, which will play well with the Urban Middle-class who rejected Enda the redneck.

FG face serious competition from The Green Party in Dublin who will do well at FGs last seat expense.

SFs position is tricky. It is not about Brexit, they are suffering from the results of the constituency infighting that has split the organisation in a lot of weak constituencies. Also the suspension of Stormont weakens their ability to sell themselves as competent parliamentarians.

Stormont is very likely on the way back because the momentum is pushing things that way. That will help SF a small bit.

There's a possible 16% GE result there for SF as the Left wing Micro parties seem to be on course to lose their Water Protest vote this time. Unfortunately for SF they themselves are in some form of disarray or too weak in the first place in more than a dozen constituencies. This should force their vote share back towards 11-12%.

Mary-Lou needs to work some magic in the media and constituencies to grab as high a vote share as possible for SF. They can afford to not win new seats and to even lose a few seats, but keeping the headline percentage figure as high as in 2016 is quite important if they are to continue to be seen as the coming force in ROI politics.

Labour aren't as fkd as people think, but outside of their old strongholds they will still be an irrelevance.

The Strong Inds will once again do very well while the weak Inds will melt away this time.

FF 28%, FG 27%, SF 13%, Greens 7%, Labour 6%, Inds and Micro 19%.
I'd agree with most of that, though I have a feeling FF will be a little further ahead of FG. FG's 'mean' vote in a 'normal' (for them) election has been around 27% since 1987. They of course went well above it in the exceptional circumstances of 2011 and slightly below it in 2016, and while I don't expect them to do well this time, I would be surprised if they went much below 50 seats. If they do, Leo V will be looking for a new job aged 40.

Should FF get 55 or more I'd expect them to try to form a govt with Lab (max 10 seats) and the Greens (max 8-9) and the likes of the HR's, Mattie McG etc. Failing this, yes, you are looking at a reversed C&S agreement with FG. I think SF may recover slightly from last May's wipeout, but I would be surprised if they are much above 15-17 seats and they will not want to go into govt in these circs, nor will FF want to go into coalition with them unless they are essential to make up numbers.
 

midlander12

Member
Dec 4, 2018
3,794
2,558
It may come earlier if Martin can't hold off a leadership challenge from John McGuinness. J McG is slittery, he tiptoed his way around the fallout of the banking bust and IMF bailout and voted against the repeal ref being held. FG don't have the same problem as even if Leo becomes toxic Simon would garner an even greater broad support after his excellent Brexit handling.

A FF spill would only play into FG hands but FF attacking the government it propped up for a whole term will have built huge internal frustrations in FF that may finally come to a head. There's just way too many contradictions to defend and I reckon SF may actually see a rebound in their fortunes once Bojos deal is passed and we have a defacto Irish sea border, a half realisation of SF central policy.
None of this will happen in the next few weeks - you are looking at an election in Feb/March in my view. There will be no leadership challenge to Martin before then and at present he would be favourite to become Taoiseach after the election, so probably not afterwards either. As for McGuinnness, he's a clownish motormouth little known outside his constituency.
 
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