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SPACE THREAD: Grand Solar Minimum, Space Weather, Asteroids, CME's, UFOs etc .. Space Travel ( 24.11.21 - DART Planetary Defence mission launched )

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830)
  • Like the deeper Maunder and Spörer Minimums preceding it, the Dalton brought on a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2C decline over 20 years, which devastated the country’s food production.

  • The Year Without a Summer also occurred during the Dalton Minimum, in 1816. It was caused by a combination of already low temperatures plus the aftereffects of the second largest volcanic eruption in 2000 years: Mount Tambora’s VEI 7 on April 10, 1815.
  • The potato crop in Ireland rotted in the ground resulting in widespread starvation.

  • In England, France and Germany wheat crops failed leading to bread shortages and food riots and looting.

  • Northern China was also hard hit with thousands of people starving to death.

  • While in southern Asia, torrential rains triggered a cholera epidemic that killed many more.
The earthquakes and tsunamis that followed killed tens of thousands of people living on the surrounding Indonesian islands. But Tambora’s eruption wasn’t of much interest to Europe and the U.S., not initially at least — the news was focused on the Napoleonic Wars and the Battle of Waterloo on Sunday, June 18, 1815, in which the Duke of Wellington defeated Napoleon Bonaparte at the expense of 65,000 men.
In that vid above he talks about Irish Famine being potentially contributed to, by the Dalton Minimum.

Interesting this .. another angle on climate change maybe. We do also seem to have had a higher occurrence of volcanic/earthquake activity in recent times?

Good read these too - Was not aware of that earlier famine, 400,000plus died

So DISCUSS .. thoughts
 
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Truthisfree

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Nov 27, 2018
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Hope not and that it doesnt last as long as

They are not sure Robut, there is proof of correlation but not causation, we will know in the next 12 months if the solar cycle does not kick in then we will see for sure if it causes cooling. It is something I have been watching for years. Piers Corbyn (Brother of Jeremy) supposedly made a fortune betting on weather forecast predictions based on sunspot activity.
 

Truthisfree

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Nov 27, 2018
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Interesting. Arguably the planet could do with a little cooling
That's the last thing the planet could do with, we can handle some more warming and increased CO2 as it boosts food production, last thing we need is a reduction in food production as happened many times before during colder times in Europe.
 

publicrealm

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That's the last thing the planet could do with, we can handle some more warming and increased CO2 as it boosts food production, last thing we need is a reduction in food production as happened many times before during colder times in Europe.
But maybe the sun related cooling would balance out the CO2 related warming, with just a slight reduction in overall temperatures resulting?

That would give us a few extra decades to shift from fossil fuel and go carbon neutral.

(Did the fossil fuel industry sponsor the research by any chance?)
 

Truthisfree

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Nov 27, 2018
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But maybe the sun related cooling would balance out the CO2 related warming, with just a slight reduction in overall temperatures resulting?

That would give us a few extra decades to shift from fossil fuel and go carbon neutral.

(Did the fossil fuel industry sponsor the research by any chance?)
I've been reading about the research on sunspot activity for about four decades, have not detected any scaremongering there as yet that would indicate interference, the knowledge base about solar activity has increased megafold since then but the understanding of it has only increased slightly, the experts are the first to say this. I don't really take NASA seriously anymore as they have become alarmist. They swing from one extreme to the other...balanced if you will...:D
 

Robutnua

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Sunspot Number today: 0

Spotless days:

Current Stretch: 39 days

2019 total: 276 days (78%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

 
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publicrealm

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Nov 27, 2018
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Sunspot Number today: 0

Spotless days:

Current Stretch: 39 days

2019 total: 276 days (78%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
2012, 2013 and 2015 had zero spotless days? Not sure what this is saying?
 
S

Sky

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2012, 2013 and 2015 had zero spotless days? Not sure what this is saying?
Where's Martin King when you need him?

If you're on Jupiter, there'll aah be a few meteor showers comin' your way on Saturday afternoon, but aah not to worry as there are some solar flares due on Sunday...

... in the meantime can I just wish Ida in Alpha Centauri a very happy 150th wedding anniversary...
 
Mar 6, 2019
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409
I remember in 2009 that there was also interest in the fact that the solar minimum was persisting longer than expected. This was a prelude to a weak solar maximum. The numbers above showing 276 spotless so far in 2019 would suggest a delayed start to the new cycle 25 in 2020, and, can we speculate?, another weak solar maximum. The forecasts appear to be all over the place but the even money is on a maximum similar to the last cycle.
 

T. Leaf

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Nov 28, 2018
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But maybe the sun related cooling would balance out the CO2 related warming, with just a slight reduction in overall temperatures resulting?

That would give us a few extra decades to shift from fossil fuel and go carbon neutral.

(Did the fossil fuel industry sponsor the research by any chance?)
Perhaps Trump will send a few nuclear warheads into the sun to heat it up. He would probably think that was a good idea.
 

Robutnua

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For anyone interested .. a Dummies Guide to Sunspots:
 

Kongming

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Mar 13, 2019
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For anyone interested .. a Dummies Guide to Sunspots:
I still don’t understand how I caused this.
 

Robutnua

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Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus have been launching cosmic ray balloons almost weekly since March 2015. Their results reveal atmospheric radiation is has reached record highs, just as solar activity is approaching a space age low.

Radiation levels have been increasing almost non-stop since the Earth to Sky Calculus monitoring program began, with the latest flights (Dec 2019) registering the highest levels of all
During solar minimums –the low point of the 11-or-so-year solar cycle– the sun’s magnetic field weakens and the outward pressure of the solar wind decreases. This allows more cosmic rays to penetrate the inner solar system as well as our planet’s atmosphere
Cosmic rays penetrate commercial jets, delivering whole-body dosages equal to one or more dental X-rays even on regular flights across the USA. Cosmic rays pose an even greater hazard to astronauts, of course. Cosmic rays can also alter the electro-chemistry of Earth’s upper atmosphere and are thought to play some role in sparking lightning.

More crucially however, CRs hitting Earth’s atmosphere have been found to seed clouds (Svensmark et al), and cloud cover plays perhaps the most crucial role in our planet’s short-term climate change.
 

Truthisfree

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Nov 27, 2018
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Been reading more about this as I usually do...very weak arguments from the 'we will all die from glob
Global warming eh?
 

Truthisfree

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Nov 27, 2018
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Few sunspots today, first in a long time...let's see what happens next.
No activity since that! One of the interesting theories about sunspot activity is that more activity means less clouds, less means more to the tune of about 2% Considering water vapour makes up 90% of our greenhouse gases that is a huge amount.
 

publicrealm

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Nov 27, 2018
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So - I'm too lazy to look this up - but are we fooked or saved - and would going veggie make any difference?

Thanks in anticipation.
 

publicrealm

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Nov 27, 2018
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Don't worry you'll be grand, unless you need to make the kessel run in the next few weeks. Then you're fucked.
I think the kessel is knackered - or it could just be water in the carbs.

I'll leave it be - as a precaution - no point in taking unnecessary journeys.
 

Truthisfree

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Nov 27, 2018
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So - I'm too lazy to look this up - but are we fooked or saved - and would going veggie make any difference?

Thanks in anticipation.
:D we're fine I hope, another mini ice age would be no fun but we'd survive. Not a damm thing we can do about activity on the sun, unless you eat more meat and consume more fossil fuels and hope the increased CO2 will have a warming effect but I doubt it will.

The point I am illustrating is that the biggest single effect on greenhouse gases is the sun and there is nothing we can do about that. CO2 is a drop in the ocean but it is easy tax :D
 

Statsman

The nice one, or so it seemed.
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A quiet retirement home
So - I'm too lazy to look this up - but are we fooked or saved - and would going veggie make any difference?

Thanks in anticipation.
Yes. No. Yes. Yes. Not necessarily in that order.
 
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