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The Brexit thread

Statsman

The nice one, or so it seemed.
Staff member
Moderator
Member
Nov 28, 2018
10,770
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A quiet retirement home
[MOD] Can I remind you of some site rules, ones that are been broken so often on this thread that I don't have time to address them all individually?

  • Tweets and videos should be accompanied by a brief description and if necessary a time line as outlined in the OP section.
  • If a video forms part of an OP (or ordinary post), the OP (or post) shall clearly set out the content which is relevant to the thread, and shall provide times of the relevant section of the video.
From here on in, I'm inclined to just delete offending posts.[/MOD]

[MOD2] Consider this a gentle reminder also of the proper use of names. We've noticed a lot of use of the term "the Brits" being used. Whilst this is generally not being used in a derogatory or pejorative way, it can be perceived to be both, so please avoid using it. Alternative, non-contentious terms can be used, eg The British, HMG, UKG, Westminster, etc., etc. We don't want to have to unnecessarily remove otherwise informative or incisive posts, but we will start doing so. [/MOD2]
 
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Firefly123

Member
Nov 27, 2018
2,177
2,815
The saga continues. The UK (wangland anyway) has decided to leave the EU. Anyone following it knows its been a shining example of what not to do in such circumstances.

Please post updates and discussions on Brexit as it continues on this thread.

Will May get her vote through parliament ?
Will Corbyn get splinters from fence sitting?
Will the Moggster make it to the 20th century?

 
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Firefly123

Member
Nov 27, 2018
2,177
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Hopefully we get some of the decent posters over from p.ie and can continue the conversation.
 

soccop

Pavlov rings my bell.
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Nov 28, 2018
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Temporally dislocated.
Chancellor Philip Hammond has admitted "in pure economic terms" the UK will be worse off under all possible Brexit outcomes.
He told Sky News: "If you look only at economic benefits, yes there will be a cost to leaving the European Union."
His comments came ahead of the publication of analysis of the impact of Theresa May's Brexit deal by the Treasury and the Department for Exiting the European Union.
Mr Hammond said: "It will show that a 'no deal' exit will have a much higher impact on the economy than the deal the Prime Minister has negotiated."
He said the draft Withdrawal Agreement offers the political benefits of being out with "very little economic cost" to the UK.
Mr Hammond admitted analysis of Mrs May's Brexit plan shows the economy will be "slightly smaller" under her preferred option.
The Chancellor said that under any scenario, in a "purely economic sense" the UK will be worse off than if it stayed in the EU, as exiting will created "impediments to our trade".
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1051368/brexit-latest-news-brussels-bosses-martin-selmayr-theresa-may-trade-deal

The Express is furious...furious I tell you.
 

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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Ireland may not be ready for Brexit, secret Cabinet memo warns

Ireland may not be ready in time to deal with the fallout from Brexit, a secret Cabinet memo has warned.

Ministers were advised that difficulties with acquiring suitable sites, rental difficulties, and building new checkpoints at ports and airports mean Ireland may not be fully ready to deal with Brexit when the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019.

Cabinet members approved the memo yesterday, which set out that a “variety of challenges” have arisen which could impact on the country’s ability to be Brexit ready.
 

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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To repeat the 3rd reply:

Of course, that then means we’re on course for a catastrophic no deal Brexit, because that’s the default outcome of having triggered Article 50.
SO is this where we are at .. barrelling toward no deal brexit while this charade of debates and MAY touring continues?
 

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
13,848
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standard

Member
IPO Supporter
Nov 27, 2018
117
50
May and her Government will not publish full Brexit legal advice!

This is absolutely unprecedented in recent times for a Government to openly defy the Commons! The meaningful vote has just become meaningless.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/nov/27/brexit-may-deal-vote-confirms-she-wants-tv-debate-with-corbyn-on-deal-before-historic-commons-vote-politics-live


From Keir Starmer on Twitter

Not good enough. Parliament won the right to see the full legal advice and that is precisely what we expect to see. Labour will not let ministers off the hook.

 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
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Lead story over at the Grauniad:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/uk-significantly-worse-off-under-all-brexit-scenarios-official-forecast-gdp

GDP could fall by 10.7% due to Brexit.

Officials modelled every scenario across a range, comparing them in nominal terms. Under the worst-case, no-deal scenario, GDP would be 10.7% lower than if the UK had stayed in the EU in 15 years’ time, assuming there is no longer any net migration into the UK from the EU and European Economic Area (EEA) after Brexit.

Before publication of the analysis, the chancellor, Philip Hammond, said the UK would be worse off in the future after Brexit, saying: “If you look at this purely from an economic point of view, yes there will be a cost to leaving the European Union because there will be impediments to our trade.”
The sh1tty chickens are coming home to roost in the fan.
 
Nov 28, 2018
777
234
Lead story over at the Grauniad:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/uk-significantly-worse-off-under-all-brexit-scenarios-official-forecast-gdp

GDP could fall by 10.7% due to Brexit.



The sh1tty chickens are coming home to roost in the fan.
It is asking quite a good deal of either the UK parliament or public to focus on the govt's own impact assessments of the cost of leaving the EU. If this had been the key determiner, then the referendum would have sunk without trace.
 

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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I mean lads come on .. The stuff coming out again from Mark Carney and Hammond and all the experts at the mo .. re No deal Brexit etc is FAKE NEWS, PROJECT FEAR v2 :D

Just thought I would add this here because someone has to for balance :D

( No im not a brexiteer )
 
Nov 28, 2018
777
234
I mean lads come on .. The stuff coming out again from Mark Carney and Hammond and all the experts at the mo .. re No deal Brexit etc is FAKE NEWS, PROJECT FEAR v2 :D

Just thought I would add this here because someone has to for balance :D

( No im not a brexiteer )
It is fake news not because the costs of exiting the EU will not be very high indeed, stratospherically so, but because politically May has to get her deal through. So she has reduced all options to this one, or nothing, in order to keep her party together, and intimidate the opposition and public.
 

Blanco

Member
Nov 28, 2018
991
91
Lead story over at the Grauniad:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/uk-significantly-worse-off-under-all-brexit-scenarios-official-forecast-gdp

GDP could fall by 10.7% due to Brexit.



The sh1tty chickens are coming home to roost in the fan.
The problem with these arguments is that after all the Economic project fear stuff just before the referendum and it not coming to pass makes it easier for hard line bexiteers to dismiss this as more fear mongering , even though it may well be on the money this time.

 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
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It is fake news not because the costs of exiting the EU will not be very high indeed, stratospherically so, but because politically May has to get her deal through. So she has reduced all options to this one, or nothing, in order to keep her party together, and intimidate the opposition and public.
Reason i said that about proj fear 2 etc is it reflects comments by brexiteers coming on UK radio like LBC, BBC 5 Live, Radio 4 all day saying exactly that. Stuff like "We were told after the ref in 16 the sky would fall in and it didnt". The most used words are "I dont believe them" ... so back to experts, piff who needs 'em, we know better ..

My opinion .. Armageddon prophecies dont work, and could wreck credibility of people using them, have opposite affect
 
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Nov 28, 2018
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Reason i said that about proj fear 2 etc is it reflects comments by brexiteers coming on UK radio like LBC, BBC 5 Live, Radio 4 all day saying exactly that. Stuff like "We were told after the ref in 16 the sky would fall in and it didnt". The most used words are "I dont believe them" ... so back to experts, piff who needs 'em, we know better ..

The point is an ironic one, I agree. However as neither parliament nor the public, nor any of the parties in parliament, can agree on any facts, then it is all moot.
 
Nov 28, 2018
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The rational choice for the UK is stay in. Unfortunately, politics and politicians are not rational, and who was ever elected for being rational?

Hammond knows full this is a pitcher of piss, but it was his choice to go along with it. No one is listening to him anyway.
 

publicrealm

Member
Nov 27, 2018
7,605
10,389
Hopefully we get some of the decent posters over from p.ie and can continue the conversation.
Agreed. This must be one of the most important political issues for Ireland in decades.

I think the second Brexit thread on P.ie had reached over 2300 pages before the crash. There were subsidiary threads on the issue also.

For me, it was the go-to source for the latest Brexit developments and for informed opinion by lots of posters of differing persuasions - exactly what a vibrant political website should be.
 

publicrealm

Member
Nov 27, 2018
7,605
10,389
Even the muggles realise that they have been sold a defective unicorn by the Ministry of Magick:

The Harry Potter creator, J.K. Rowling, has suggested that some Brexit-supporters have always wanted a no-deal, with millions to be made when an economy collapses – a potential outcome if the UK exits the EU without a deal.

It has been reported that hedge funds used private polling to enrich themselves to the tune of millions, while Nigel Farage was forced to deny shorting the pound on the night of the Brexit vote



J.K. Rowling

@jk_rowling
Plenty of Leavers have always wanted a no-deal Brexit, because there are millions to be made from a collapsing economy, as long as you've already got offshore bank accounts, plenty of money and the ethics of a hungry shark.

Sky News

@SkyNews
Mark Carney holds a press conference after issuing a dire warning about the impact of a no-deal Brexit https://www.pscp.tv/w/bs6_fjE5NTg2fDFNbnhuTm9OTWFOeE8emDW6n-5gJJIVKxNvlV6EC57UOX_r7KAS9pZxuHjEqQ==
 

Firefly123

Member
Nov 27, 2018
2,177
2,815
Agreed. This must be one of the most important political issues for Ireland in decades.

I think the second Brexit thread on P.ie had reached over 2300 pages before the crash. There were subsidiary threads on the issue also.

For me, it was the go-to source for the latest Brexit developments and for informed opinion by lots of posters of differing persuasions - exactly what a vibrant political website should be.
Me too.
You could filter through the trolling and there was really up to date stuff there to read through. I'm hoping this will serve as a replacement.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
6,260
Bank of England: 'No deal' Brexit could lead to economic collapse

The Bank of England says that a disorderly Brexit could push the UK towards the biggest slump in modern memory.

It says that a disorderly Brexit, involving no new trade deals, severe disruption at borders and uncertain economic conditions, could lead to the British economy shrinking by nearly 8% - more than the effect of the financial crisis.
Project Fear V2, Fake News .. blah blah .. experts .. blah blah .. sunny uplands ... B E L I E V E :D
 
Nov 28, 2018
777
234
SF, while a subject of fascination to posters on here, have absolutely nothing to do with Mays brinkmanship and are well out of it.
 
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