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The Irish Economy thread .. ( Income, Cost of living, Retail, Local Biz, FDI etc )

Kongming

Member
Mar 13, 2019
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Sounds very like "This is how we've always done things, so who the hell are you to tell me we need to change?", whilst the rest of the world moves on...
Yeah, Ireland is still very Irish. I had an opportunity to bid on a project a while back, and was kinda sorta told that I needed to get what I’d call a “good ole boy” reference from a certain headquarters on Upper Mount St.

I passed.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
13,848
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Top of the class ..

But i assume our FDI friends are in there somewhere .. skewing figures a bit?
 

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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Why are so many of us skint despite talk of ‘recovery’? - IRISH TIMES
For years now we have been told by the powers that be that the good times are here again.

And while it may be true that the economy has recovered to an extent that was almost entirely unimaginable a decade ago, many of us still find ourselves looking disconsolately at drained bank accounts towards the end of the month or scrabbling around at the back of the couch looking for change.

It is not all that hard to see why.
Once the cost of groceries, mortgage payments, electricity and gas bills, the cost of running a car, phones, a modest social life, home insurance, various insurance policies, school and childcare, one holiday, a fairly careful Christmas and some other things generally speaking considered essential to get by are added up, a typical family who bought even a small home during the boom years are likely to get through close to €60,000 over the next 12 months.

And that figure is an after-tax one which means many households will need a combined income of in excess of €100,000 to live a hardly lavish life.
To be honest for last year or even two THATS what I have been hearing from friends, acquaintances and biz colleagues.

Not much if actually nothing left there to spend with small local biz etc.
 
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Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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Construction activity falls at sharpest rate since June 2013 – survey - IRISH TIMES
Construction activity in Ireland fell at the sharpest rate since June 2013, according to an economic indicator produced by Ulster Bank.

The Ulster Bank PMI survey recorded a second consecutive monthly decline in activity. But, despite a report last week pointing to contraction in the Dublin residential market, the PMI survey says the sector continues to expand nationally, albeit at a slower rate.
The October residential reading was 51.3, down form 52.9 in September. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Still, the index points to a clear loss of momentum in the construction industry generally. Commercial activity was responsible for the significant contraction in the index to 46.2 in October.
In line with the fall of activity, new orders witnessed the first fall since June 2013 with panellists citing ongoing uncertainty around Brexit.
 
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hollandia

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Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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Why are so many of us skint? Because were spurned a massive opportunity to reset all the economic norms in the aftermath of the crash, in favour of repeating the previous cycle.
Yip ... property addiction for one ... And not using the last crash as an opportunity for core changes in our economy. Seems we have just settled back into the same thing as you say
 

Cruimh

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Why are so many of us skint? Because were spurned a massive opportunity to reset all the economic norms in the aftermath of the crash, in favour of repeating the previous cycle.
This might surprise some: in 2004 SF put out an extraordinarily good pdf on Poverty

Summary of Recommendations

Poverty effects approximately one in four adults and one in three children in Irish society. It is not a periodic phenomenon that rises and falls with a growing or contracting economy. Neither can it be assumed that a period of economic boom is indicative of a fall in poverty levels, we need only look at the 26 Counties where despite a decade of unprecedented economic growth, relative income poverty per household has increased steadily. Poverty is a persistent condition associated with unfettered market economies. It also arises out of the failure of state structures to plan development.
Page 3

And, while the 1916 proclamation does not sit comfortably, this in bold

In the Proclamation of Independence in 1916, Republicans committed themselves to the establishment of a nation which cherished ‘all the children equally.’ In the Democratic Programme of the first Dáil (1919), this was significantly developed; Republicans reaffirmed ‘that all right to private property must be subordinated to the public right and welfare.’ Furthermore, the Government guaranteed that in return for willing service it would recognise the ‘right of every citizen to an adequate share of the nation’s labour.’
could be used to lay the foundation for radical changes in attitude, behaviour and financial practice - on both sides of the border.

The 1867 Fenian Manifesto:

The soil of Ireland, at present in the possession of an oligarchy, belongs to us, the Irish people, and to us it must be restored.

Led to contentious discussions within the Republican Congress

The 1937 Republican Congress manifesto decried the constitutional provisions on both property and religion as a ‘betrayal’ that had ‘outraged … the whole tradition of the Fenian struggle’. This is an important locution: ‘Fenian’ is a key word in O’Donnell’s vocabulary of political discourse. Throughout his career, his polemic was riddled with references to ‘Fenian Ireland’, ‘Fenian radicalism’, and ‘the Fenian countryside’. In the same 1974 reminiscence quoted above, he suggested that the phrase that best described his political ideology was ‘social Fenian’.13 In its call to the Irish people to ‘redeclare the republic’, the Congress manifesto made specific reference to the 1916 proclamation as ‘the people’s charter’, but its reference to the tradition of Fenian struggle harkened back to a yet earlier republican declaration, the proclamation of an Irish republic rendered by the Fenian Brotherhood on the eve of the 1867 rising. Expressive of a politically nationalist ideology in its consciousness of an aggrieved citizenry moved to revolution against despotic government and of society as a compact intended to safeguard natural human rights, this document foreshadows by some seventy years the 1937 Congress manifesto by linking together republican principle, social radicalism (specifically radical reform of property relations), secularism, and equality of all citizens before the law. Declaring that, ‘unable longer to endure the curse of monarchical government, we aim at founding a republic based on universal suffrage, which shall secure to all the intrinsic value of their labour’, the 1867 Fenians addressed in successive clauses the same two issues of property rights and religious liberties that would be contentious constitutional issues for the 1937 left republicans:

The soil of Ireland, at present in the possession of an oligarchy, belongs to us, the Irish people, and to us it must be restored.
We declare, also, in favour of absolute liberty of conscience, and complete separation of Church and State.14
(I have used strike-through on separation church and state as it is a different issue.

Peadar O’Donnell, ‘Real Republicanism’ and The Bell


I wrote this some years ago on another site

We will only progress when we cease to regard housing as an investment and properly regulate the market.

We have plenty of housing stock and empty buildings that could and should be used, both for short term and long term provision of accommodation.

We need to get away from destroying our environment and heritage so that the greedy can make profits and all the associated political shenanigans and corruption. "Developer" is a euphemism for parasite.

Profits on House sales should be taxed at 90%, allowing for improvements and inflation. And 95% on second or subsequent homes. Houses should be for living in, not for people to treat as a commodity.

There should be little or no green field development - and land prices should be controlled - it is ridiculous (and an open invitation for corruption) that agricultural land's value can go sky high because of a Bureaucrat's signature - and the difference in value goes into someone's pocket, leaving house buyers to pay through the nose and saddling themselves with a lifetime of debt.

Accommodation is as important as food - the state regulates and control's food prices, it should do the same in respect of housing.



Steps off soapbox.
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
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This might surprise some: in 2004 SF put out an extraordinarily good pdf on Poverty


Page 3

And, while the 1916 proclamation does not sit comfortably, this in bold



could be used to lay the foundation for radical changes in attitude, behaviour and financial practice - on both sides of the border.

The 1867 Fenian Manifesto:




Led to contentious discussions within the Republican Congress


(I have used strike-through on separation church and state as it is a different issue.

Peadar O’Donnell, ‘Real Republicanism’ and The Bell


I wrote this some years ago on another site

We will only progress when we cease to regard housing as an investment and properly regulate the market.

We have plenty of housing stock and empty buildings that could and should be used, both for short term and long term provision of accommodation.

We need to get away from destroying our environment and heritage so that the greedy can make profits and all the associated political shenanigans and corruption. "Developer" is a euphemism for parasite.

Profits on House sales should be taxed at 90%, allowing for improvements and inflation. And 95% on second or subsequent homes. Houses should be for living in, not for people to treat as a commodity.

There should be little or no green field development - and land prices should be controlled - it is ridiculous (and an open invitation for corruption) that agricultural land's value can go sky high because of a Bureaucrat's signature - and the difference in value goes into someone's pocket, leaving house buyers to pay through the nose and saddling themselves with a lifetime of debt.

Accommodation is as important as food - the state regulates and control's food prices, it should do the same in respect of housing.



Steps off soapbox.
Come the revolution, eh?
✊
 

curio

Member
Feb 26, 2019
4,007
3,666
Ok, personal anecdote time.

Upon working fulltime again in Ireland recently after having been away since 2011, I personally find the one big variant is rent.

Now we don't have children so obviously can't comment on those associated costs.

Car insurance, considering I was starting from scratch without no claims bonus was surprisingly cheap, actually the premium was about the same as when I left in 2011. I guess my age brought me into a lower risk group.

Wages in the same industry are actually higher than the height of the boom around 07, but staff shortages are acute now.

So to sum up it's all about the rent. I don't mind personally too much as neither of us have plans long term to settle in Dublin. I left Dublin before for a much better quality of life elsewhere in Ireland and we'll most likely do it again.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
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Why are so many of us skint despite talk of ‘recovery’? - IRISH TIMES

Construction activity falls at sharpest rate since June 2013 – survey - IRISH TIMES

Commission flags slowdown in Irish economy - IRISH TIMES

The European economy is expected to sustain its seven-year run of growth for the next two years, but then “looks to be heading towards a protracted period of more subdued growth and muted inflation,” the European Commission predicts in its autumn economic forecast.
The commission’s forecasts for Irish growth this year and in 2020 and 2021 show a slowdown from 5.6 per cent to 3.5 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively. But the projections are based on a soft Brexit and will have to be revised down further if a no-deal Brexit goes through.

The commission also warns of the potential for overheating in the economy.
All very happy headlines for November .. But are they real road signs pointing to difficult times OR all crap, scare mongering because the Irish Times etc don't know what they are talking about? Shur we are booming again arent we?

In a nutshell, if it is not crap, is it all down to that one word starting with B OR are there other underlying things disguised by Brexit issue?
 

hollandia

Literally knows shit
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Get rid of Keegan and hus army of overpaid incompetent apoarachniks, tax the bloody cyclists, no more vanity projects, hire competent staff and make them accountable for their actions/decisions, stop engaging consultants, that would do for a start.
😡
 

Shaadi

Member
Feb 16, 2019
2,594
2,890
This might surprise some: in 2004 SF put out an extraordinarily good pdf on Poverty


Page 3

And, while the 1916 proclamation does not sit comfortably, this in bold



could be used to lay the foundation for radical changes in attitude, behaviour and financial practice - on both sides of the border.

The 1867 Fenian Manifesto:




Led to contentious discussions within the Republican Congress


(I have used strike-through on separation church and state as it is a different issue.

Peadar O’Donnell, ‘Real Republicanism’ and The Bell


I wrote this some years ago on another site

We will only progress when we cease to regard housing as an investment and properly regulate the market.

We have plenty of housing stock and empty buildings that could and should be used, both for short term and long term provision of accommodation.

We need to get away from destroying our environment and heritage so that the greedy can make profits and all the associated political shenanigans and corruption. "Developer" is a euphemism for parasite.

Profits on House sales should be taxed at 90%, allowing for improvements and inflation. And 95% on second or subsequent homes. Houses should be for living in, not for people to treat as a commodity.

There should be little or no green field development - and land prices should be controlled - it is ridiculous (and an open invitation for corruption) that agricultural land's value can go sky high because of a Bureaucrat's signature - and the difference in value goes into someone's pocket, leaving house buyers to pay through the nose and saddling themselves with a lifetime of debt.

Accommodation is as important as food - the state regulates and control's food prices, it should do the same in respect of housing.



Steps off soapbox.
Although we elect Govts of the Rentier Class this lack of access to affordable housing goes way beyond our shores.


There's something concerted about the widespread unwillingness to provide cheap housing in rich Western Countries. Why could it be done in the extremely difficult economic times of the inter war wars and on through the 50s, 60s, 70s until it started to stop as the Reaganomics of the 80s took hold internationally. It reduced to a trickle through the 90s and midway through the noughties when there was unprecedented wealth about as the pre crash boom was in full swing in most of the West.

Countries have never had access to credit at such low interest rates and still Govts refuse to attempt to match the home building efforts of their 20th Century predecessors. What's going on?
 

Kongming

Member
Mar 13, 2019
3,799
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Yeah...I’m with you on that. Hiring full time, experienced specialists in their respective field, and compensating them would be a very expensive ongoing line item in the council’s budget.

I mean, if it’s cheaper to sub out the bin collection.....
 

Cruimh

Rhubarb fetishist and proud of it!
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Nov 28, 2018
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There's something concerted about the widespread unwillingness to provide cheap housing in rich Western Countries. Why could it be done in the extremely difficult economic times of the inter war wars and on through the 50s, 60s, 70s until it started to stop as the Reaganomics of the 80s took hold internationally.
What's going on?
The Financial system changed. Cheap housing would destroy the current banking and mortgage foundations. States have backed away from inconveniencing Global Banking.
 

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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Heard today on news .. about some report that costs today v ten years ago and during celtic tiger .. have shot up way more than during celtic tiger years. Inc price increases on everything gone up with percentages like 17% and 35% etc etc. ( I will try dig out this report )

So back of the envelope stuff for a couple no kids say:

  • €1200 a month put away for staples, utilities etc
  • €1200 a month for mortgage ( rent might be more )
  • €400 a month for car loan / pcp ( one car )
  • €500 a month for a private pension
  • €300 a month for private health for 2
Total per annum - €3600x12 = €43,200

I havent included costs of running car or maintenance here .. And have not included Holidays, socializing etc .. and missing other stuff to no doubt? ... Just thought of one, even with private health .. GP costs etc

Then add Kids and the costs of that.

No room for any gravy there at all?

So thats €43,200 NET .. what would that translate to GROSS Wage per annum? So not alone is it no longer enough for one person to work to support a house, even with two on average wage ( €36k ) I imagine its a struggle

How have we got here? How long can this be sustained? And wages have not really risen in tandem with that elephant in the room that for ever dogs those working in the Irish economy .. cost of living.
 
Mar 1, 2019
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No room for any gravy there at all?
Irish cinemas attendances down in 2018 but still highest per capita in Europe

Irish people spent almost €7.5bn on foreign holidays in 2018
.
Like it's 2008 - Irish people set to break the €100 billion barrier in consumer spending this year
 

hollandia

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Irish cinemas attendances down in 2018 but still highest per capita in Europe

Irish people spent almost €7.5bn on foreign holidays in 2018
.
Like it's 2008 - Irish people set to break the €100 billion barrier in consumer spending this year
Well, we know what happened just after 2008. It seems lessons have not been learned at all. The crash, and the ensuing austerity programme, were an opportune moment to reset the Irish economy. It strikes me that that will be seen as a missed opportunity.
 

Robutnua

Member
Nov 28, 2018
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Irish cinemas attendances down in 2018 but still highest per capita in Europe

Irish people spent almost €7.5bn on foreign holidays in 2018
.
Like it's 2008 - Irish people set to break the €100 billion barrier in consumer spending this year
Yip .. I saw some of that too.

I am just trying to work out why one set of reports say one thing and another say something else.

Surely then based on what you posted the average wage should be way way higher than €36k approx. Maybe should be up around 50/60K seeming everyone is doing so well?

Because obviously from what you post the MAJORITY of people can afford the €43k per annum costs I ROUGHLY outlined and have lots of gravy on top of that also?
 

hollandia

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Yip .. I saw some of that too.

I am just trying to work out why one set of reports say one thing and another say something else.

Surely then based on what you posted the average wage should be way way higher than €36k approx. Maybe should be up around 50/60K? Because obviously from what you post the MAJORITY of people can afford the €43k per annum costs I ROUGHLY outlined and have lots of gravy on top of that also?
Most - including myself - don't have the private pension. Because I simply can't afford it, pay rent in Dublin, a mortgage elsewhere and feed a wife and two kids.
 

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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Most - including myself - don't have the private pension. Because I simply can't afford it, pay rent in Dublin, a mortgage elsewhere and feed a wife and two kids.
So on one hand there is your honest story but on the other we are told we going gang busters and are loaded as per EPs post? What gives?

Is this the canny use of stats .. average/mean v median ( which is never used and would be more truthful )
 
Mar 1, 2019
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Well, we know what happened just after 2008. It seems lessons have not been learned at all. The crash, and the ensuing austerity programme, were an opportune moment to reset the Irish economy. It strikes me that that will be seen as a missed opportunity.
I'm just pointing out that there is no shortage of gravy. Whether there is enough veg is another thing.

The great theoretical economic reset - it was always going to be an opportunity we chose to miss. Nobody - (95% at least) had the appetite for anything other than the path of least resistance, as the PBP rejection of the property (wealrth) tax summed up most eloquently. And while we have fallen well short of the sort of economy we might wish had emerged, overall we are in better, more balanced shape, particularly in relation to government finances not being as dependent on transactional taxes, more stringent credit rules, and not having 25% of our economy based on construction. Maybe we aren't where we might be in 2019, but are where we might have wished to be in 2008.
 
Mar 1, 2019
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Yip .. I saw some of that too.

I am just trying to work out why one set of reports say one thing and another say something else.
Because reports are written by reporters who need to write something to get paid so as they can go on a foreign holiday slash pay the rent.
 

hollandia

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So on one hand there is your honest story but on the other we are told we going gang busters and are loaded as per EPs post? What gives?

Is this the canny use of stats .. average/mean v median ( which is never used and would be more truthful )
Oh, there's money around, and that's pretty evident. And I'm paid pretty well, tbh. But I'm relatively careful with it, because there's little headroom to be flaithulach. I was lucky. I got away with the last crash because I wasn't made redundant and was willing to travel to work abroad to keep the show on the road. Nor was I indebted up to my oxters.

As regards the use of stats, median is probably more representative. the problem with mean averages is that they can be skewed by outliers in a huge way.
 

Robutnua

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Nov 28, 2018
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... overall we are in better, more balanced shape, particularly in relation to government finances not being as dependent on transactional taxes, more stringent credit rules, and not having 25% of our economy based on construction. Maybe we aren't where we might be in 2019, but are where we might have wished to be in 2008.
Could one argue we have replaced the 25% of economy based on construction with another one trick pony - FDI Corp Tax reliance??
 

ted08

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Jan 7, 2019
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Could one argue we have replaced the 25% of economy based on construction with another one trick pony - FDI Corp Tax reliance??
Indeed. The fiscal advisory group have been very critical in this regard, that like stamp duty back in the day, far too much of this unexpected bonanza is being spent on day to day spending and in particular being used to plug the overspending gap particularly every year in health. I think there's a combination of consistently poor and unrealistic budgeting as well as a propensity to overspend.
 
Mar 1, 2019
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Could one argue we have replaced the 25% of economy based on construction with another one trick pony - FDI Corp Tax reliance??
Yes, there is too much FDI dependence, but it's not like we have a pipe connected from our economy's arse to it's mouth and convinced ourselves that we are loaded like in 2006.

It is more comparable with the exchequer dependence on transactional taxes that flowed from the property market back then -primarily stamp duty and VAT on the building materials and services. About 30-50% of the Corp tax take is considered 'unreliable' by the Fiscal Advisory Council. Stamp duty from property in 2006 alone would have been comparable to the low end of that scale. And FDI corp tax was not insignificant then either - again would have been about 60% of the current figure.

BUT... that doesn't mean we are in as vulnerable a position as 2006, because on top of the government finances collapsing, and the largest sector of the economy collapsing you had a humongous banking system collapse.
 
Nov 27, 2018
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Yip .. I saw some of that too.

I am just trying to work out why one set of reports say one thing and another say something else.

Surely then based on what you posted the average wage should be way way higher than €36k approx. Maybe should be up around 50/60K seeming everyone is doing so well?

Because obviously from what you post the MAJORITY of people can afford the €43k per annum costs I ROUGHLY outlined and have lots of gravy on top of that also?
I'd wonder how many households are dual-income rather than single-income. The numbers (both yours and PE'a) make a lot more sense if there's more than one wage coming in each month.

As for gravy, I'd agree with H. "Luxury" spending may be abundant, but that doesn't mean it's luxury spending on top having having all the essentials covered.

People spend on disposable treats; cinema, pub, shiny new phones, new clothes, because these things are actually relatively cheap, but the "essentials" are expensive to the point that there's no point saving for them.

No point saving for a property to live in, as cost both of the deposit and the mortgage are not realistic. Forget about a private pension. Rent is prohibitive, so stay in the family house if at all possible. Etc..

I think a lot of the "discretionary" spending does not imply that people have lite than enough money, I think it shows they've given up saving and/or investing in the future.

As H says, lot's of gravy but not enough veg. Or rather, lots of gravy because of the fact there's not enough veg.
 

Gin Soaked

Member
Nov 28, 2018
449
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The big killers are Mortgage, worse if rent, as you have no control or long term plan. 4% increase is a lot and your wages will plateau. Most only get 2% raises annually. Unless you can move jobs to get more money. Not always possible, regardless of where you live.

Then kids. If you do creche for two nippers, that is 2k a month or a bit less if you have flexibility and a childminder. Or the space and patience for Au Pairs.

University for the kids will be similar for another 4 years per sprog. So add 48k gross salary (creche) and then 24k of salary (uni. x2 kids) for education is not uncommon in Dublin based couples. Culchies are hammered far more at that stage.

And that assumes state schools. Private gives another 6 years per sprog at 5k to 7k a year.

Now, the above assumes working parents are paying for everything themselves, but there is a lot of inheritance and similar around.

If we had rich parents, we could take a 60k pay cut on a free gaff. Add in trust funds for the grandkids and we could take another 24k pay cut off schools.

Not looking for any sympathy here. We are very fortunate. And live in a modest gaff.

But just illustrating that inheritance and rich parents makes a gigantic difference. There are a lot of hidden transfers about BEFORE grandparents kick the bucket and you get another inheritance and that is your pension sorted..

I know people who had loaded grandparents. They lived much more relaxed lives with far more chilled parents. Being bohemian is expensive.
 
Nov 27, 2018
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I know people who had loaded grandparents. They lived much more relaxed lives with far more chilled parents. Being bohemian is expensive.
I've more than a few stories about some people that fits this perfectly. Not bad people, not at all. But yes, When hanging around with an "alternative" crowd, it did seem that the "crazy kids" who had been kicked out of more than one school tended to have gone to private schools.

Getting expelled was a badge of wealth.
 

Gin Soaked

Member
Nov 28, 2018
449
381
I've more than a few stories about some people that fits this perfectly. Not bad people, not at all. But yes, When hanging around with an "alternative" crowd, it did seem that the "crazy kids" who had been kicked out of more than one school tended to have gone to private schools.

Getting expelled was a badge of wealth.
Consequence free environment.....

We were acutely aware that we had one hit at the benefits of a good(ish) school and university. And room and board whilst doing uni. But screw it up and it's your life.

As my brother puts it, " no one bought us a house"
 
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